NFL Week 4 Teaser Picks: Broncos Will Hang Around in Vegas
The Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos highlight our NFL Week 4 teasers picks.
There are a couple of opportune spreads and totals available to tease through key numbers and ranges for bettors this week. There’s also a heightened focus on trying to land closing-line value by wagering earlier in the week and beating the closing numbers.
For additional information on teaser bets and strategies, make sure sure to check out our teaser betting primer.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 4. Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 27.
Week 4 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to Tease Down
Packers (-10.5)
Ideally, you’re looking to tease a favorite down through all three of the key numbers of 7, 4, and 3. In this case, it’ll take a 7-point teaser to clear the Green Bay Packers through 7 and 4 – and of lesser importance 10.
Bookmakers have a tough decision on their hands, as this spread could continue to climb with all the early money on the Packers. I’d act now, so the potential closing-line value added can offset the noted lack of an ideal starting point.
Green Bay has surrendered the seventh-lowest EPA per dropback while generating 25 pressures and six sacks over the past two weeks. So, with the New England Patriots turning to backup quarterback Brian Hoyer or rookie Bailey Zappe behind center on Sunday, the Pats offense will be in a tough road spot.
Additionally, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is also rounding into form with the 10th-best EPA per play while completing 76.67% of his passes and throwing for 8.2 yards per attempt across his past two games.
New England ranks 20th in EPA per play allowed and grades 25th in defense and 22nd in run defense per Pro Football Focus. As a result, the Green Bay running game should also bounce back against the Patriots after a tough Week 3 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Underdog to Tease Up
Broncos (+2)
While there’s plenty to unpack here, there’s also a simple starting point: all six games the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders have played this season have finished as one-possession contests.
With Denver’s defense allowing the sixth-lowest EPA per play and also sporting the sixth-highest defense grade per PFF, teasing the Broncos through the key number of 7 adds insurance to mitigate the scoring ineptness of the offense.
The Broncos also rank fifth in time of possession, which is encouraging for their prospects of hanging with the Raiders. Especially considering there’s nothing to fret about a Las Vegas defense allowing the seventh-highest EPA per play and grading 11th-worst per PFF.
Two noteworthy trends in this divisional matchup support adding a larger buffer on the Broncos, too. The Under has hit in five of Denver’s past six road games, and the Under has also hit in nine of the past 11 games between the Raiders and Broncos. A lower-scoring outcome correlates with a boosted Broncos spread.
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
Week 4 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to Tease Down
Cardinals-Panthers (43.5)
This is an opportune total to tease down well below the key ranges of 40-41 and 43-44. The Arizona Cardinals also profile as a perfect opponent to help the Carolina Panthers right the ship offensively.
The Cardinals have the lowest defense grade in the league per PFF, and they’ve surrendered the second highest EPA per play and success rate, after all.
Arizona sports a middle-of-the-road offense ranking 11th in EPA per play and 17th in offense grade per PFF. The Cards are also averaging 74 offensive plays per game – tied for second most in the league.
It’s also worth noting that even with money pouring in on the Under, this total hasn’t dramatically moved, which indicates it’s an accurate line that bookmakers are comfortable with and are hesitant to drop.
Total to Tease Up
Chargers-Texans (44.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers have a laundry list of injuries to key players, and the Houston Texans rank 29th in EPA per play, so it isn’t surprising to see this total drop after opening at 45.5.
Still, even at 44.5, you can use a 7-point teaser to go above the key number of 51. Additionally, this total has the potential to continue to drop to provide additional closing-line value.
Houston quarterback Davis Mills ranks third last in EPA per play with a discouraging 57.9 completion percentage and 6.2 yards per attempt. His underwhelming start to the season is a key component to this recommendation.
This is also a ripe bounce-back spot for the Chargers, and in particular, head coach Brandon Staley and defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill will have a plan to make Mills’ afternoon miserable. Los Angeles has to avoid a 1-3 start, so I'm banking on the Bolts being prepared for the Texans.
Where to Bet on the NFL
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Related Articles
