Tease Packers & the Over vs. Vikings for Week 5 NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Monday, September 29, 2014 5:56 PM GMT

The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers are at opposite ends of the spectrum in the NFC North. They’ll meet on Thursday night where the Packers are a big favorite on the NFL odds.

The Minnesota Vikings Can Win Because…
Teddy Bridgewater has given them new life. This team looked dead in the water without Adrian Peterson in the back field and with Matt Cassel running the show. However, Bridgewater has come in and sparked this team. They went toe-to-toe with the Atlanta Falcons, outscoring them 41-28. Bridgewater helped them pile up 520 yards of offense in just over three quarters before leaving in the fourth with a sprained ankle.

The Packers are coming off a pair of tough divisional road games. There’s a good chance they take their foot off the gas in this one and look past the meek Vikings – especially with Bridgewater not likely to be 100%. That’ll leave a big enough opening for the Vikings to back door this game

 

The Green Bay Packers Can Win Because…
They’ve finally got their offense going. Hard to believe that they were one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL heading into last week but that’s when Aaron Rodgers told everyone to “R-E-L-A-X”. He would connect on 22-of-28 passes for 302 yards and four touchdowns en route to a 38-17 dismantling of the Chicago Bears last Sunday. The Vikings simply don’t have the firepower to compete. Playing without Adrian Peterson, this team doesn’t have much punch – especially on the road. They’ve only won one of their last 10 road games. Other than their Week 1 gift in St. Louis, they’ve allowed 30.3 points per game in their last nine road losses. Rodgers and company are going to have a feast.

 

Evaluating the Betting Line
We saw this line open at Green Bay -8 on the NFL odds board and it makes sense. They’re a public team and a lot of their fans watch them obliterate the Chicago Bears on the road last week. The snap-judge reaction by a lot of bettors will be to lay the points with the Packers as it will be Bridgewater’s first road start and that’s assuming he’s healthy enough to play. He left in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game with a sprained ankle. He had to be carted off the field but x-rays were negative. On top of that, he’ll be facing a much tougher defense as Atlanta’s unit is horrible.

You can expect that a lot of books will needing the Vikings in this one – especially on teasers – as Green Bay teased down to -1 or -2 will be a popular play. However, don’t underestimate this Vikings squad.

The Packers got a gift last week once Jay Cutler turned into a turnover machine and single-handedly gave the game away. If the Vikings are more cautious, there’s no reason to be believe they can’t do their part in this shootout. Remember, it was just two weeks ago that the hapless New York Jets went into Lambeau Field as a big dog and gave the Packers a run for their money.

The Packers do a good job of winning games as a favorite (20-6 SU in last 26 as a favorite) but they aren’t as strong with covering the number (15-10-1). As for the Vikings, they’re 17-11 in their last 28 as a dog.

Assuming Bridgewater plays, look for this to be a high-scoring affair as both offenses move the ball with ease. That seems to be the best individual play for our NFL picks but teasing the Packers and the over also makes sense.

NFL Pick: Tease Packers & Over at The Greek

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290624, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]