It’s the stretch run of the NFL regular season, and the props from bet365 just keep getting better as we hit the final four weeks of the season. Once again the team props present some nice value this week, and I have three I am releasing absolutely free of charge.
Baltimore Ravens O/U 13.5 Points
The Ravens’ season is over but that doesn’t mean they don’t have anything left to play for. Baltimore is hosting the Seahawks this week, who have been surprisingly very good on defense in their last three contests away from Century Link. However, those were also against poor teams like a Tony Romo-less Cowboys and the Rams as well, and even though the Ravens have lost a lot of firepower this season on offense, Matt Schaub threw for more than 300 yards last week, and if the Seahawks are hurt by the cross-country game late in the season, the Ravens could get to 14 or more points in this one. With the NFL odds of +100 for the over, I am chasing the even money and taking a shot on the Ravens offense. Even if this game gets out of hand and the Seahawks get up by three touchdowns in the second half, I could see the Ravens getting a couple garbage time scores as well. Still, don’t be surprised if the Ravens keep the game close at least for the first two or three quarters.
NFL Picks: OVER 13.5 (+100) at bet365
New England Patriots O/U 24.5 Points
There are always some plays that look very square and still cash, and I think this game falls into that category. The Patriots are on the road in Houston this week without their top two skill players, against a Texans defense that has been playing better over the last month or so. New England is still a favorite of -3 ½ with a total of 45, so theoretically the Patriots should be right around 24-25 points in this one. JJ Watt reportedly broke his hand but will still play I this game, and if the Texans’ pass rush is significantly affected by that, New England is getting more than 24 points this week on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots have failed to score at least 25 points only once this season, and I don’t see the second time happening in a critical game against a potential AFC playoff foe. The Patriots need to keep pace with the Broncos and Bengals in the fight for a first round bye, and both of those teams have tough games this week. I see Tom Brady dishing out at least 27 points in this crucial game.
NFL Picks: OVER 24.5 (-120)
Saints vs. Buccaneers O/U 3.5 FGs
The highest total of the week is by far the Saints and Bucs, and with Tampa at home and fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC, this one could be up and down with tons of scoring. However, that doesn’t mean the scoring will only come in the end zone. These two teams have given up 44 combined field goals on 49 attempts this season. The Bucs have given up eight field goals in their last two games alone. With the potential for a high scoring game comes the possibility of four or more field goals too. The weather is looking fantastic in Tampa as usual, and on top of the Bucs giving up a ton of field goals in Weeks 12 and 13, they are also not that great in the red zone this season. Tampa has a red zone conversion rating of only about 50 percent, and if the poor Saints defense can just stop them in there once or twice, the field goal over looks like a nice value for your NFL picks at -120.
NFL Picks: OVER 3.5 (-120)