Race to 20 points
As of now, the Broncos are still -2 favorites in the NFL Odds, and although we have seen some big betting on the Seahawks over the weekend, Denver is still holding two out of every three dollars in play. Why does this matter? It starts with whether or not you believe that the Broncos will win the game by a field goal, and if you do, it likely means you think they will win most of the race to the points.
Denver has the quick strike ability, and while getting to 10 points is a bit riskier, you have to think that considering the total of 47, the team that gets to 20 points first is likely going to win the game. If the Broncos get to 20 points first, Bet365 is paying out at +105 for that prop, and if you’re like me, the value lights are flashing. The Broncos’ moneyline is currently sitting around -125 or -130, so +105 on the Broncos to get to 20 points before the Seahawks looks great to me.
The Broncos are also slightly favored to score first in this game, and if they can get out to a lead early, it will be almost impossible for the Hawks to catch up or to beat them to 20 points. Bet the Broncos to get to 20 first.
My Pick: Broncos (+105)
Right now the NFL Odds for the total have stayed somewhat the same throughout the last week and change, and at 47 points, it falls right in between a prop wager on Bet365 for the total points range. I think the total is pretty sharp and at the range of 41-50, you can get +250 NFL Odds if indeed the end game total falls between these ranges.
The Broncos’ defense should hold the Seahawks in the low 20s for the game, while Peyton Manning and company likely won’t get to 30 points against the Hawks’ defense. That makes this prop in play on value alone. +250 is incredible considering where the total is now.
In the last two Super Bowls, the total went way under in Super Bowl 46, and way over last year in Super Bowl 47. However in the three Super Bowls before those two, the final score was an average of only seven or eight points above or below the settled total for the game. If we see one of those Super Bowls, this prop could be one of the more valuable prop wagers on the market this week.
It really is just a value play, but of all the props out there this week (an as many as there are at Bet365 alone) you can find some that aren’t necessarily as sharp. With thousands out there, there will be some you can take advantage of, and I think there two above are perfect examples.
My Pick: 41-50 points scored (+250)