As we head into the ceremonial half way point of the NFL season, it’s time for my prop betting picks. The NFL Odds are once again tough, but I’ve dug through them to find three value plays.
Minnesota Vikings O/U 20.5 Points
The Vikings are one the road this week in Chicago, and with a total of only 42 ½ points, the sportsbooks seem to think this might be a slower, and lower scoring game. However, while Adrian Peterson has been ruled probable for this game, the Bears’ run defense has actually not been bad this season. Their pass defense is where they leave something to be desired, but along with their now-healthy offense, the Bears are going to give the Vikings some trouble. That could mean the Vikings are forced to throw the ball just enough to where not only could the over be a good play, but the Vikings team total as well could hold value on the over. Minnesota dropped 28 points on the Vikings last week on the road, so while they did play horribly in Week 1 all the way out in San Francisco, their home/road splits are skewed slightly for them. Take the over with the Vikings on the road.
My Pick: OVER 20.5 points (-120)
New York Jets O/U 23.5 Points
I was browsing the team total section at Bet365, and not only did I come up with the play above, I also could not resist the Jets’ team total this week of 23.5. New York is also on the road all the way out in California this week, but while that may hurt the team some, I think it will have more of an effect on the defense than the offense. They have only played two road games so far this season, and even though nothing compares to a cross-country trip to Oakland, the Jets are one of only a few teams this season that seem to play almost as good on the road compared to at home. While their last half of the season is full of road games, that may actually help. Including this week, three of their next four road games are in fair weather cities, which include Houston and Dallas as well. It’s going to be 70 degrees in Oakland for the game on Sunday, and you best believe the Jets are going to open it up. Chris Ivory is also probable this week, so strap in Jets fans, because hopefully this one will start the momentum for your Mets as well back in New York for Game 5.
My Pick: OVER 23.5 points (-110)
49ers vs. Rams – Neither Team To 25 Points
This is the lowest total game of the week at 39 ½ on the NFL odds board, and after a 13-10 meeting at the end of last season, and with the 49ers offense and defense much worse, I see this one being a lower scoring, and run oriented game for both teams. The Rams offense doesn’t have much else outside of Todd Gurley on offense, and even though this one is at home, I’m expected a 24, 13 score at the end of it, with the under being the play, and a nice prop on bet365 look even better. At +110 odds, I think bet365 is being slightly too generous for a prop like this, and I’m taking it to the bank. Although the 49ers have had success against the Rams in the past on offense, this is a different 49ers offense, and much worse defense too.
My Pick: Neither Team To 25 Points (+110)