Take Packers -5.5 as Home Favorite Over Cowboys

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, January 9, 2015 4:52 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 9, 2015 4:52 PM GMT

The Cowboys travel to frigid Lambeau Field for Sunday’s opener, where wind-chill factors are expected to be in (-) figures. They will face a Green Bay team, who has been dominant on their home field.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (-6) 1:05 ET FOX TV
The Cowboys travel to frigid Lambeau Field for Sunday’s opener, where wind-chill factors are expected to be in (-) figures. The Cowboys bring great road ability and momentum into this contest, along with an outstanding ground game. There they will face a Green Bay team, who has been dominant on their home field, who is also playing their best ball of the season.

Following a series of mediocre 8-8 SU, non-playoff seasons, the Cowboys emerged to enter this game with a record of 13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS, covering the number by a net of 87 points this season.  In their current 5-0 SU run, the Cowboys have averaged 38 PPG.  That includes the final game of the regular season, when they beat down division rival Washington  with a 174-104 overland edge and +3 net TO margin.  Last week, things looked bleak for the Cowboys, who trailed 20-6 late in the 3rd quarter. But, a phenomenal rally, fueled by 3 Detroit TOs, allowed the Cowboys to escape with that 24-20 victory, despite being outgained by Detroit 397-315. The return to the playoffs by the Cowboys has been fueled by a strong offensive performance, keyed by the running game that averages 31 carries per game on 143 RYPG and 4.6 YPR.  Credit a far improved offensive line, a great season by RB Murray and the offensive balance provided by QB Romo and his prime receiver WR Bryant.  To the credit of the Cowboys, they were a perfect 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS away this season. Against fellow playoff teams, they went 2-1 SU ATS. Their fundamental downfall this Sunday will come with a pass defense that allowed 67% completions on 7.2 defensive yards per pass attempt.  Overall, they allow 6.0 defensive YPP, the worst of any remaining playoff team. 

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Green Bay enters with solid momentum of their own following a regular season-ending victory (30-20) over Detroit that clinched the division title and home field. That is important because Green Bay is 8-0 SU at Lambeau this year, going 6-2 ATS by an average score of 40-20.  Green Bay has outgained their last 8 opponents by an average of 113 YPG with an offense that has averaged 33 PPG. The week of rest is a valuable asset to Green Bay. It will allow QB Rodgers (calf) to return to full health.  As well, it must be noted that this Green Bay team is 11-1 ATS following a week off, including playoff action.

Must respect the road ability and running game of the Cowboys, but following their improbable comeback of last week, it is unlikely they succeed at frigid Lambeau Field, where the Packers behind QB Rodgers have been dominant once again this season. Take this into consideration when looking over the NFL odds.

NFL Pick: Take Green Bay Packers -5.5 at 5Dimes

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