Swinger's Record (29-21-2, +12.2 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*
Truth be told I felt about as square as a box of Apple Jacks last week when I advised a pair of 4 unit plays on heavy favorites. But that just proves once again when you try to be a sharp just for the sake of being a sharp then the consequences can be devastating to your bankroll. So there I was, Chalky Von Chalkawitz, laying the heavy lumber on the New England Patriots -7 (buying the hook) and the Seattle Seahawks -11 ½ (which shot up to 13 by kickoff) just hoping that me and my fellow squares would cash big. Well, a funny thing happened - we did! That's right, the chalk ruled the day and we were more than happy to go up +12.2 units on the season. Our only other play was Under 43 in the 49'ers/Cardinals game which pushed in our NFL picks due to a 19 point fourth-quarter.
So let's keep this money train chuggin' along and see if we can isolate a few plays based on the NFL odds this weekend that will add to our suddenly burgeoning bankroll. Let's go!
I know both teams are known for putting up crooked numbers but this game may move along at a more lethargic pace. If you take a good hard look at the New Orleans offense over the last six games before Week 17 you will note that this scoring juggernaut has not been nearly as ferocious as their reputation. The public will surely have last week's 42-17 destruction of Tampa Bay firmly etched in their mind but that was simply a masturbatory exercise in dominating a weaker team that had clearly quit. If you look at their performances prior to last week you will no doubt see that this team has averaged only 17 points per game since a 23-20 victory over the Niners on November 17th.
The flipside to this equation is an Eagles team that caught fire at the right time and won the woeful NFC East with a 10-6 mark. The Eagles have gotten back on track in the scoring department but they did not go off the hook as expected against an anemic Dallas defense last week that ranks among the worst in most defensive categories. This week they face a retooled Saints defense that ranked 4th in the entire league in points allowed. Toss into the mix that the wind chill factor in Philly will bring the temps down to about 15 degrees and you have a recipe long on cold hands but short on scoring.
Play Under 53 ½ for 3 units at WilliamHill.com
One of the best defenses in the NFL is traveling to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field and it's gonna be chilly! While the Packers no doubt looked rejuvenated under Aaron Rodgers last week in their 33-28 victory over the Bears, this will be a much sterner test. In addition, the ball will more closely resemble a chunk of granite in the sub-zero temperatures of Green Bay, Wisconsin. There are reports that it will be -30 degrees with the wind chill factor. Are you bleepin' kidding me?! That's reason enough to bet early and often on the game going low,low,low, low in your NFL picks.
Play Under 45 ½ for 4 units at Bet365.com.
The Woodman's Corner (10-7, +2.3 units) - Guest Handicapper
The Woodman looks to get back on track after a stellar run. He fell hard for the Bucs getting all 12 ½ delicious points last week in 'Nawlins but it was not to be as they got drilled 42-17.But a new week awaits and the Woodman has shifted his allegiances to the San Francisco 49'ers -2 ½ in NFL odds as they travel to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to meet the Packers.