Swinger's Record (33-26-3, +9.80 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*
It's easy like Sunday morning writing this column when you're gloating about the winners you gave out the week before, but when you crash and burn as I did last time out, it makes you want to pretend it never happened. Unfortunately it did and it cut our season long winnings in half.
Here's the damage. Patriots +7 (-140 buying 1 ½ points because I was sharp as a razor and wanted to push if somehow the Broncos were to put a few more points on the board than I anticipated) for 4 freakin' units. I then went back to the poisoned well and advised a play on the money line Pats +200 in NFL odds which deleted two more units from my stash. I then tiptoed through the total and bet Over 56 for two more units. Complete AFC failure.
But then there was the biggest kick in the cajones when I took a lousy number (remember this for all of you who accuse me of getting numbers that don't exist because I am using Saturday's NFL odds and don't wait until Sunday at 12:59 PM when the best numbers have all disappeared to make my NFL picks) and bet Under 39 in the Niners/Seahawks game. In one of the rare instances this season, the number moved against me and hopefully those who tail my plays got Under 40 or better, which they probably did, as the score was 23-17 for a total of 40 freakin' points. That was a 4 unit money burner and when it was all said and done, I burned through 14.2 units.
But here we are. It's the end of the season and we will leave this season plus money in our pocket. And remember rookies, just because this is the biggest football game of the year doesn't mean it should correlate into your biggest bet of the year. Personally, I am certain there are several other sporting events that hold greater value than the one I see here on Super Sunday. So with that, enjoy the game, be safe and don't forget I write all year 'round here at Sportsbookreview.com so do look for me in SBR's basketball, baseball and UFC sports sections.
So here's the deal kids. A handicapper whom I respect a great deal has articulated several reasons why Seattle is the pick here. And while I understand the old adage that defense wins championships I am not convinced that a pedestrian offense like Seattle's can overcome the greatest statistical juggernaut of all-time in the Denver Broncos despite the Seahawks' stellar defense. However, I am cutting down on my unit play because I fear that my infatuation with Denver's unrivaled aerial attack has caused me to underestimate the tenacity of the Seattle defensive unit.
I believe Denver's defense is stout enough to contain a fairly one dimensional Seattle attack and eventually the more time Manning spends on the field, the more points light up the scoreboard. I will however, attempt to split the baby in advising a play on Under as well which will most likely click if Seattle does triumph and could also cash if Denver wins a squeaker.
Play Denver -120 on the money line for 3 units at WilliamHill.com.
Play Under 47 ½ for 2 units at Bet365.com.
The Woodman's Corner (11-8-1, +2.2 units) - Guest Handicapper
The combination of the Woodman's lust for Tom Brady and his love of grabbing the points was too much for him to resist. He joined me in a suicide plunge on the Patriots last week and he's still licking his wounds. However, the man doesn't stay down for long and he's joining me on the side of the Denver Broncos -2 in NFL odds at Bet365.com.