Swinger's Record (33-22-3, +24.00 units) *Each wager is graded from 1 to 5 units*
We went 2-1-1 last week with a small two-unit loser on Over in the Chargers/Broncos tilt but then we scored with a four-unit winner on San Diego +10 (buying a full point that we didn't need) and a three-unit score on the Over in the Colts/Patriots game. But one game that we should have won was a wager on the Seattle Seahawks who controlled the entire game against the New Orleans Saints only to see the Boys on the Bayou score a garbage TD in the waning moments of the game to give us a push in our NFL picks. Fortunately we got them early at -8 in NFL odds whereas most punters laid north of that unlikely magic number, had they waited.
But as the season nears its inevitable conclusion we cannot help but realize yet again how much smarter we got as the season rolled along. We were huffing and puffing our way through the year without taking too much damage until we began to understand how these teams were constructed. Then we caught fire and haven't looked back. A $100 bettor now has $2400 in his coffers if he has been tailing me this season.
I want to thank each and every one of you who has been following this column throughout the NFL season and am happy I can repay that loyalty in the form of a fat bankroll that we intend to expand over the final two weeks of the season.
In my Locker Room Gossip series that I have been writing all week for SBR I noted in Saturday's article that since these teams met in Week 12 the New England Patriots have scored 233 points while Denver has scored 232. Pretty amazing huh? Well check this out. How many points do you think each team has allowed since that stunning comeback on November 24th in Foxboro? Exactly 161! Cue the Twilight Zone music. So why are the Broncos 5 ½ point favorites in NFL odds?
Here's the deal boys and girls. The Broncos have only two edges in this game. They have more talent and depth at receiver and they have home field advantage. Now those two advantages alone could make Denver a big winner. But I doubt it. As a matter of fact, when I look at the Patriots I see a team with a better defense, particularly one that has gotten better as the season has worn on versus a battered and bruised Broncos defensive unit. Secondly, the Patriots have a vastly superior running game with their three-headed monster in Blount, Ridley and Vereen. Lastly, the special teams of the Patriots has been ranked tops in the NFL versus the Broncos who are slated at 21st.
While evaluating the NFL odds in this one here are my NFL picks:
Patriots +7 (-140, yes I am buying 1 ½ points) for 4 units at Bet365.com.
Patriots +200 for 2 units at Bet365.com.
Over 56 for 2 units at WilliamHill.com.
Two of the best defenses on the planet and we have a total that, granted has come down from its original 41, but still looks ripe for the picking. Aside from Marshawn Lynch blowing a few holes up the middle do you see much scoring in this one?
While I hate to get down on a bad number it sure as hell looks much better than the 34 I would tag on it. Is this matchup any different than the Ravens/Steelers matchups of a few years ago when both teams boasted tremendous defenses? You would routinely see totals of 33 and 34 on those games so why not here? I don't know and I'm not asking any questions because 39 looks like mighty juicy compared to 33.
Play Under 39 for 4 units at Bet365.com.
The Woodman's Corner (11-7-1, +3.3 units) - Guest HandicapperThe Woodman and I were on opposite sides last week but the result was the same as he pushed with the New Orleans Saints +8. And now he comes back this week with, wonder of all wonders, an underdog! Yes, the Woodman never saw a head start he didn't like as evidenced by his early arrival at buffets all across the Northeast. This time he's backing the New England Patriots +5 ½ at Bet365.com and who the hell can blame him?!