Swinging for the Fences in Week 4's NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts players in action

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, September 30, 2017 4:49 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 30, 2017 4:49 PM GMT

Last week Swinger went 1-2 against the spread but is preparing to turn it around with three solid selections in his Week 4 NFL picks. Let's see what SJ has for us this weekend.

Swinger’s 2017 NFL Record (3-5-0, -3.70 Units)

Taking a big deep breath before I write this column. Last week we went 1-2 where we could easily have gone 3-0 against the spread. We cashed two units with the Saints as six-point road dogs to the Panthers but didn't need a one as they came away with a 34-13 road victory. That proved to be the only good news of the day for us as we dropped a 30-26 two unit decision backing the Lions as three-point home dogs to Atlanta and then watched the Eagles win a 27-24 squeaker over the Giants but flamed three units as five-point home chalk. We failed to cover two games by a grand total of five points. Well if they're that close neither team should have been bet, to begin with so we will take our lumps and see what the NFL odds are offering us in Week 4.

 

Panthers at Patriots (-9)

You don't normally see one of my picks for or against the New England Patriots. The truth is, I am too close to the action, having been born and bred in Boston. I feel I lose my objectivity as opposed to my Patriots' friends who bet them blindly, regardless of how high the points spread, each and every week. They are zealots while I am a realist. That said, I have called the right side in their three games this season but because of my aversion to staking cold, hard cash on my boys from Foxboro I have sat on the sidelines while my "air bets" cashed.

But not this week. The bottom line is that the Carolina Panthers cannot score and you just know that this New England defense will get better because of the barometer, as we speak, is uncharacteristically low. This is a defense that allowed the fewest points per game last season and you will see a much better effort against a woeful Carolina offense that has averaged just 15 points per contest.

Oh and one more thing. Panthers' center Ryan Kalil will not play as he continues to be plagued with a neck injury. No big deal right? Well, consider over the last 19 games that the Panthers averaged 26.3 points per game in the nine games he played versus 17.7 PPG in those he didn't. Furthermore, Cam Newton's top target Kelvin Benjamin is expected to suit up but is more than likely going to be gimpy after suffering a knee injury last week against the Saints. You can't keep pace with New England's lightning aerial attack using a ground-and-pound rushing offense, which is what the Panthers are likely to do. The Pats win big this weekend.
 

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -9 (4 units)Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Rams (+7 -140) at Cowboys

The Rams are averaging almost 34 points per game against a Dallas squad averaging a click over 21 points per game. There is a ton of sharp money flowing in on LA with the line having dropped from eight and crossing the magic number of seven and falling to as low as six in some online sportsbooks. We went shopping and found a juicy line at 5Dimes but one for which we will have to pay an extra 30 cents in vig. I will gladly make that trade because so many games fall on three and seven. Let's hope this one doesn't as the Rams could win this one outright!


Free NFL Pick: Rams +7 (3 units)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Eagles (+3 -125) at Chargers

If you shop this line you will find the Bolts at anywhere from 2.5 to 3 point home chalk. However, if you're going to bet an underdog plus 2 ½ then you should always pay the increased vig to move that line to three because, like seven, it is a magic number and one that you don't want to lose a cover because you were too cheap to buy the hook.

However, we don't think we'll need that half-point as the Eagles should win this one outright. In fairness, the Chargers may be 0-3 but they have not been blown out because their defense is fairly stout. However, their offense is not one that will send tremors across opposing defenses. We feel the Eagles are better on both sides of the ball and should have enough staying power to win on the road here. Back the Iggles.


Free NFL Pick: Eagles +3 (3 units) Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker Line Since Moved to 2.5

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The Woodman’s Corner (2-1, +0.9 Units)

The Bengals looked like poison after falling to 0-2 straight up and against the number when they waltzed into Green Bay last week and nearly scampered out with a victory. It was not to be as the Cats allowed the Packers back in the game and ultimately bowed 27-24 in overtime, saving all those suicide pool entries on the Packers. But that wasn't an issue for the Woodman whose crystal ball was clear as a bell when he forsook all the pundits backing the home chalk and instead grabbed a big number with Cincinnati that easily cashed as nine-point road dogs. Incidentally, that number fell all the way to seven at game time because the word was out that the Woodman was on the Bengals. He is the steam originator.

This week our dog lovin' friend has another big pup in his sights as he is backing the Indianapolis Colts in his NFL picks as they travel to Seattle in what some are calling the Sunday Night Slaughter. He says "nay, nay" and that this dog will hunt in the Emerald City.
 

Free NFL Pick: Colts +13Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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