Swinging Johnson is back at it again and looking to deliver more winners in Week 7. Let’s take a look at what he’s got up his sleeve and keep cashing those tickets on the best betting sites!
Dazed and Confused
Swinger’s 2020 NFL Record: 13-6 ATS (+13.90 units)
Have you ever looked at an NFL card and were so pumped because you saw several games that you couldn’t wait to pound? It’s like the clouds had lifted, the sun was shining, and the universe was smiling on you – and only you. That has happened to me on three separate occasions this season, and it has manifested in 3-0 ATS weeks each time.
However, last week was not one of those weeks. I looked at the card and all I could think of was favorites, which is never a good sign. It’s the mark of a square, and the sportsbooks build palaces on square dough bet by Joe Q. Public.
It’s actually a good thing to recognize you’re not comfortable with a card because then you will limit your units on your NFL picks, or dare I say, pass on betting anything for that weekend (stop laughing). My mistake was that instead of allocating one unit on my three plays, I backed them for two units apiece on our 1 to the 5-unit system. It was all chalky favorites, and although I went 1-2 against the number, it felt like I went winless after being on such a heater.
For the record, my losses in Week 6 were the Vikings and Colts while I notched my only cover on the Dolphins by virtue of having the Jets on auto-fade. Okay, that’s my tale of woe, but now it’s time to get back in the saddle and bust our books.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 25, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at Paul Brown Stadium
The last time these teams hooked up the Bengals hung tough but ultimately bowed, 35-30, in Week 2 to the Browns in Cleveland. However, they covered the number as six-point road dogs. Now the venue has shifted, and the game will be played in the Queen City with a banged-up Browns’ crew that has their starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield, listed as questionable.
Speaking of Mayfield, he was atrocious last week against the Steelers. He's clearly not recovered from his rib injury. After getting whacked around last week, in a game in which he was pulled, how will he be this week? Maybe he plays, maybe he doesn’t. What we do know is that those ribs won’t be completely healed, which means the Bengals get:
- Homefield advantage
- An opponent without its top running back, Nick Chubb, who rushed for 124 yards and scored two touchdowns the last time Cincinnati played Cleveland.
- An opponent’s ”backup” running back, Kareem Hunt, who is also dealing with bruised ribs and gained only 40 yards on 13 carries last week against Pittsburgh that, granted, has a better run-stop unit than the Bengals.
- An improving rookie QB in Joe Burrow who has seen the Cleveland defense already and should be better suited to combat them, especially with the chemistry developing with Tee Higgins.
- Oh, and the Bengals also get a 3 ½ point head start.
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 25, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
While we don’t normally delve into the wonderful world of totals, we are not allergic to them either. In our 19 picks this season, only one was total and it clicked for us. Back in Week 4 the Browns and Cowboys soared over 55 ½ points in a 49-38 shootout.
Now we will go back to the well and scan the NFL odds where we see the total in the Lions/Falcons game is 55 at all of the majors except Bookmaker, currently dealing 54 (-115). We’re going over here because Julio Jones is back and burning it up for the Falcons which bodes well for a shootout against a Lions team that has Matthew Stafford pulling the trigger.
Neither Detroit nor Atlanta has any defense to speak of. The Falcons rank 31st against the pass, surrendering a whopping 335.3 yards per game. While the Lions pass defense is banged up, and although statistically are in the middle of the pack, should not present any issues for Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage. Fly high, boys and girls, and bet the over in this one!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 25, 2020 - 4:25 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High
Kansas City has won the last nine meetings between these teams and will probably win again this week when they visit the Broncos at Mile High. However, Denver is likely to have a tight end, Noah Fant, back from injury and the burgeoning star that is Jerry Jeudy will have a much easier time of it than he did last week with New England’s Stephon Gilmore.
Patrick Mahomes will be Patrick Mahomes and despite the Broncos’ having one of the better defenses in the league, he will undoubtedly get his points. However, the KC offensive line has injuries that could lead to a breakdown in protection. The long and short of it is that considering the circumstances, the points we are getting on Denver as a home underdog are too good to pass up.
The Woodman’s Corner (1-5, -4.50 units)
I’ve known this man for 21 years and I can attest that the Woodman has never gone 1-5 after the first six weeks of the NFL season. I dare say this might be the single worst thing that has happened in 2020 because, quite frankly, not much else leaps to mind.
However, if there is one factor straying from his routinely winning strategy it is that he has backed the New England Patriots three times already, which means on a 14-16 game slate, he has zeroed in on his hometown heroes half the time. Tom Terrific is not walking through that door, Woodman! It’s time to open your eyes to all the other possibilities.
Well, apparently, he has because this week he is convinced that the Carolina Cats will be covering the number down on the bayou against the Saints. Woodman says, “BET THE FARM ON THE PANTHERS”. And while I like that pick, I would suggest ratcheting it down a bit, to maybe, a slightly used combine and a few heads of cattle.