Swinger’s Week 11 NFL Picks

Swinger’s Week 11 NFL Picks
Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons and interim head coach Raheem Morris. November 08, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

After several winning weeks, Swinger stumbled a bit in Week 10 but vows to get back to crushing your bookmaker on Sunday. Let’s get back to cashing and see what he’s got!

What a Difference a Hook Makes

Swinger’s 2020 NFL Record: 18-12-1 ATS (+12.03 units)

Let’s get the unpleasantries right out of the way, shall we? Last week I flamed in my NFL picks with the Eagles -3 (-118) for two units as they lost outright to the Giants, 27-17, and then the Seahawks +2 (-112) did me dirty when they bowed, 23-16, to the Rams.

However, rather than lament my losses I will dwell on my push which was the Browns -3 (-123) as they squeaked by the Texans, 10-7, last Sunday. Two things to know, the first of which is the importance of jumping on a good number sooner than later. You don’t need to wait until 12:55 PM on Sunday to put your wagers in because sometimes that procrastination will be your undoing. Case in point, I got Cleveland -3 on Thursday but the Browns closed as 4 ½ point home chalk on Sunday.

Secondly, make sure to have multiple outs. That’s right, in this case, had I not made this bet with Bookmaker, I would have had to accept -3 ½ at virtually every other top-notch online sportsbook in the industry. Bookmaker was dealing exactly what I was looking for and I was more than happy to pay the -123 in vig because, ultimately, I didn’t have to pay it at all! Getting off of that hook saved me and once again, the number three in football proves to be critical.

Okay, well, that’s it for last week and now it’s time to keep on keepin’ on. So, without further ado, let’s make some dough ladies and gents.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Sunday, November 22, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome

The Saints will be without Drew Brees this week, who will be sitting with a host of injuries. Not the least of which is a collapsed lung, which will pave the way for Jameis “The Pick” Winston to light up the Superdome. The only problem with Winston is that he is just as likely to toss a pick-six as he is to throw a touchdown pass.

The Falcons might be only 3-6 on the season but they have won three of their last four because their receiving corps, including the immaculate Julio Jones, has gotten well and their cornerbacks are now healthy. You give me Matt Ryan plus five points versus Jameis Winston, and I am down with the Ice Man all day long and twice on Sunday. Winston is 2-3 against the number as a favorite of greater than four points in his career and that is likely to go to 2-4 ATS after this one is over. Back the Dirty Birds as a live road dog here.

NFL Pick: Falcons +5 (-110) at Bovada for 3 units (visit our Bovada Review)

Falcons +5-110
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Damiere Byrd #10 of the New England Patriots. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, November 22, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium

I would normally fade a team on the road after a big win like the one the Patriots had over the Ravens last week but I can’t help but think that New England’s 4-5 record has sobered them up already. I am confident Belichick will be reminding his charges that getting to .500 is the game plan and not reveling in last week’s workmanlike victory over an AFC powerhouse.

The NFL odds have shifted dramatically. The Texans opened as high as three-point favorites to where it now stands with the Patriots -2 at most of the best online betting sites. However, Bookmaker is giving us an even better number than the rest with New England -1.5 as of this Thursday writing.

Cam Newton appears to be more with it and there is little doubt that New England will run over, through, and around the Texans’ porous run-stop unit. JJ Watt does not a defense make, and I believe that the Patriots are superior on both sides of the ball and should win this one rather easily. Lay it and like it.

Amari Cooper #19 of the Dallas Cowboys. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 22, 2020 - 4:25 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium

Here we have a line that has been inflated due to perception versus reality. The Cowboys have had some ugly losses this season while, in contrast, the Vikings have registered three consecutive wins. However, the Cowboys have been racked with injuries and are only now getting healthy. Moreover, Andy Dalton will be under center for Sunday’s game, and although he’s no world-beater, he was a starter in this league for a very long time and should handle the Minnesota pass rush with relative ease.

We are getting too many points here to refuse to bet on America’s Team. If the books want the squares to lay bad numbers with the home chalk then we will balance those books and grab the value with the road hounds.

Cowboys +7-125
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Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins. Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images/AFP

The Woodman’s Corner (3-7, -4.70 units)

As you can see from his record above, we are nothing if not transparent in this weekly column. My good buddy, the Woodman, is having his worst NFL season ever and it didn’t get any better last week when he backed the 49ers +9.5 against the Saints down on the bayou. Needless to say, it was more of the same old misery as San Francisco dropped a 27-13 decision to New Orleans and the Woodman’s pick failed to cover the number…again.

This week he is putting his money on Tua and the Fish as they travel to Mile High in search of their sixth straight win…. say, whaaaaat?! Yeah, six freaking straight for Miami, and the Woodman is convinced they will get it. Personally, the game is a pass for me, as I hate the hook but don’t hate the play.

Woodman’s Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Dolphins -3.5-108
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