This is the first of two Swinger’s picks this weekend and below we will focus solely on Saturday’s NFL games. We won again last week, just as we have done all season long. Let’s crush our books again!
Max Bet Comes Through
Swinger’s 2020 NFL Record: 33-20-2 ATS (+30.65 units)
I make five-unit max bets about as often as I use my parking brake…rarely. Well, perhaps I am being a bit hyperbolic because I never use my parking brake, yet, I have made two max wagers out of my season-long 55 NFL picks. Fortunately, both cashed with the latest being last week’s New Orleans Saints -9.5 which was the best line available last Thursday over at Heritage Sports.
Speaking of which, my colleague Mark Lathrop, an excellent writer here at SBR and winemaker extraordinaire in Washington, asked me if I still liked the Saints when they went to -10.5 (and would eventually soar to as high as -11). Had this not been a five-unit bet for me, I would have likely waffled because laying the hook on what can be a critical number like 10 gives me the heebie-jeebies. However, if I am wagering five times my unit size then I have to believe my side will cover by more than a point. But Mark had good reason to ask me because laying bad numbers, regardless of how strong your conviction, is a recipe for long term disaster.
Fortunately for both of us, the Saints covered as they won by a dozen, although New Orleans did allow a garbage-time touchdown with no extra point attempt after the score. I’m not sure I have ever seen that in regulation and wasn’t even certain it was legal until the teams walked off the field.
In addition, my two units on the Ravens -3 covered but my three-unit play on the Steelers was a disaster as they bowed to the Browns in abysmal fashion. When the dust settled, I was 3.76 units to the good and we are now clicking on over 62 percent of our bets this season. Let’s keep the money train rolling boys and girls!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 4:35 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Before I begin, make sure to check out Swinger’s Sunday Picks when it goes live on Thursday, and in that column, you will find the Woodman’s weekly pick as well.
Okay, so I’m not thrilled with betting on a team that has a dinged-up Jared Goff or a backup named John Wolford pulling the trigger. However, the Rams’ defense is immense and it will be a herculean task for the Green Bay offensive line, sans two starters, to contain the likes of Aaron Donald and company.
The other thing we should remember is that the weather is projected to be windy and cold in Green Bay this Saturday. That means that passing the ball will be tougher than usual. This will help the Rams because Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best passer in the business and diminishing that, to any degree, is a plus for the other side.
The NFL odds over at BetOnline are giving us LA +7 (-125), and that sounds a whole lot better than the +6.5's I’m seeing at most of the other shops.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Saturday, January 16, 2021 - 8:15 PM ET at Bills Stadium
This is not last year’s Ravens team. Despite the fact I have made some coin betting them this year, they are not nearly as threatening offensively. The Bills have a very good defense, albeit not the elite caliber unit we expected heading into the season, and should be able to contain the Ravens.
Right now, Josh Allen is on fire and, quite frankly, better than Lamar Jackson at this juncture. Let’s not forget that the Ravens’ offensive line is not as stout as it was last season with the retirement of Marshal Yanda. That has negatively impacted Jackson’s protection much more than people anticipated. I love the fact that we are getting under a field goal here at all of the best betting sites, so with that, I am backing the Bills in this one.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.