Swinger's NFL Week 6 Picks

Swinger is looking to get back on track this week as he has three of his best bets in the NFL waiting to deliver to you, right here, and right now. Let’s see what the man has for us this Sunday in his NFL picks!

Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record: 9-6 ATS (+1.20 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)

In Week 4 I went 4-0 against the number and could do no wrong. The only thing I would have changed is the unit amount which was 3’s across the board. But then again, how can anyone justify all maximum bet 5-unit plays unless they are an action junky looking for a heavy dose of adrenaline versus a calculating bettor seeking a large infusion of cash?

Max plays should be about as rare as the Kardashians at a Mensa convention. Yeah, I poke fun but speaking of cash, they’ve got more than they can spend. Who’s the dummy, right? Yet, I digress. Last week was not a complete bust but it certainly felt that way.

https://youtu.be/FQdb_nEZqdo

I’m getting hammered laying the lumber with these big favorites and it’s not like I haven’t written extensively about the perils of betting like a square. Sometimes you are what you hate and after dropping 3-units on the Vikings and 4-units on the Patriots, call me Joe Q. Public.

The only saving grace last week came in the form of the only dog of the three, the Chicago Bears, who didn’t need any of the 5 ½ points they were getting in Sin City when they defeated the Raiders outright, bringing us a measly 2 units to the good.

After the dust settled, we went 1-2 and dropped 5.28 units. Fortunately, we are still plus money on the season so at least we’re doing better than most. Let’s attack the books and get our dough back, shall we?

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 09:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Those of you who have been reading my column over the years know that I rarely dabble in totals, or the ovah/undahs as my Boston friends are fond of saying. But when I see an opportunity, a shooters’ gotta shoot, and that’s what I’m going to do right here.

The Dolphins have a banged-up backup quarterback in Jacoby Brissett and his offensive line is aptly named because it is, quite frankly – offensive. That’s a tough combination if you want to put points on the board even if the defense you are facing is of the caliber of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacoby Brissett #14 of the Miami Dolphins. Julio Aguilar/Getty Images/AFP

Speaking of the Jags, Trevor Lawrence has a banged-up offensive line that will likely be missing two starters and the game plan could be a heavy dose of James Robinson running the rock against a relatively porous Dolphins defensive front.

Oh, and make sure you bet this one on Saturday so you don’t have to shake off a hangover on Sunday morning just to get your bet in because London is calling, my babies, and this one is early.

That’s just another reason for the boys to be foggy as they will have the jet lag factor and the time change to contend with throughout the morning. This all adds up to a grindy game and a low-scoring one at that. Let’s go low here and cash a ticket!

NFL Pick: Under 47 for 3 units (-108)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at FedEx Field

Look, I’m like the head cheerleader who just got dumped by the star quarterback. I’m smokin’ hot and when I walk by the boys I say, “Feast your eyes and fan-ta-size.” But for some reason, I can’t get over the fact that I’ve been dumped. Me, of all people, ha-ruuumph. Yet, it doesn’t stop me from stalking the guy who dumped me just so I can get hurt all over again.

Well, I hate to break it to you but I’m a middle-aged guy who wears sweatpants, despite the fact I go out of my way not to break a sweat of any kind unless I’m losing a bet. But the analogy is that I am as square as a microwave in regards to clinging to the notion that Patrick Mahomes is bound to get into a shootout that the other side can’t possibly win.

Betting the Chiefs keeps costing me money yet I continue to return to them because I can’t imagine this offense not blowing teams away.

https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1447325325822726145?s=20

Yes, the KC defense is weak and it is their Achilles heel this season, but despite that fact, I am going back to this poisoned well to bet a 1-4 ATS team on the road laying a touchdown. What a sap I am, and at this point, I might be chasing just so I can satisfy my itch to cash with the Chiefs.

But seriously, how the hell is Taylor Heinicke going to match Mahomes throw for a throw when his team falls behind and they can’t keep running the ball because they need points in a hurry? He won’t – lay it and like it.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -6 ½ (-110) for 4 units

Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

I scanned the NFL odds on this game and was stunned to see how many points the Giants were getting at home before it dawned on me that they had significant injuries last week against the Cowboys. Their trainer’s room could be considered a MASH unit considering the sheer volume of injured players, especially to some very important pieces of their offensive puzzle.

Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are definitely out while Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney are questionable. Those are just a few of the names on the Giants’ injury report as the list is long and it's concerning for not only this week but the rest of the season.

But then again, the Giants are 1-4 with those key players so where were they going anyway? Maybe to their local travel agency to make vacation plans as soon as the regular season ended.

https://twitter.com/RamsNFL/status/1448470175074775048?s=20

This brings me to my point. The Rams have had an extra three days to prepare as they played last Thursday when they claimed an impressive 26-17 road win over the Seahawks. They will be facing a shattered and demoralized Giants squad that should gain little traction against one of the league’s best defensive fronts. How do they stay within double-digits of the Rams in this one?

I don’t think they can and it’s not as if LA is looking ahead to a big divisional showdown next week which could, perhaps, take their focus away from the lowly Giants.

No siree, they’ve got the equally lowly Lions to feast on next week and that won’t distract them one iota. Hate to say it but we’re laying the lumber again and my ride aboard the square train continues.

NFL Pick: Rams -9 ½ (-110) for 3 units

https://twitter.com/BuffaloBills/status/1447420685685563397?s=20

The Woodman’s Corner

Woodman’s 2020 NFL Record (4-1, +2.90 units)

The Woodman was bold enough to back Josh Allen and company as the Bills waded into the deep waters of Arrowhead Stadium and emerged with the scalps of the Kansas City Chiefs. Now that we’ve traversed those politically incorrect waters, let’s get to the Woodman’s NFL pick this week.

In what has become an unusual pattern, the Woodman has become that great aunt of yours who always goes to the same restaurant and orders the same thing. The Woodman seems to get tied to teams after they cash for him, as he did with the Texans three times this season already and will return with the Bills, on the road again (thanks for the lyric, Willie), over the Tennessee Titans.

A chalky road play from a guy who normally loves the pups. My squareness is contagious.

Woodman's Pick: Buffalo Bills -5 ½ (-115)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.