Swinger's NFL Week 2 Picks

Season 2020 NFL Win Percentage: 63.3%Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record: 1-1 ATS (-0.16 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)

I’m keeping my 2020 NFL ATS win percentage of 63.3 percent up for just one more week so that I can remind myself that I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and gosh darn it – people like me. For those too young to catch the Stuart Smalley reference, you can check him out on YouTube if you’re curious.

But right now, I need my daily affirmation because I have to shake free from this “every favorite’s gonna cover” mentality that I was so careful to avoid last season. Learning to love dogs is easy when they’re furry but when they are of the underdog wagering variety, it can be a process and I have to confess, I’m a square at heart.

That doesn’t mean I am going to reflexively back the chalk because that is how the squares get massacred every year at the windows. By the same token, I won’t manufacture a reason to bet a dog just because I’m trying to look sharp by being contrarian. The golden ticket to winning throughout the long, windy, NFL season is to analyze each matchup in a vacuum and don’t get too high when you win or low when you lose.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EWVwM8RaPA

All of that said, I feel like I went 0-2 last week as I backed two favorites that seemed too good to be true. The Bills done me dirty when Josh Allen looked more reminiscent of the unsteady rookie that he was in 2018 rather than the dynamic gunslinger that he was last year. The Bills won in every statistical category except the one that counts when they fell to Pittsburgh last week, 23-16, as 6 ½ point home chalk. That cost us 2.16 units.

However, we got lucky when we plucked a good early number on the 49ers at -7 ½ (this might be the last time I ever say that 7 ½ is a good number) as it rose to -9 at kickoff. Normally, that point and a half wouldn’t matter but it did last week when San Francisco melted like butter in a blast furnace in the final quarter to let the Lions back in it. When the dust settled, the Niners won, 41-33, which means I covered by taking the early number while those who waited did not. That brought us two units to the good for an overall Week 1 of 1-1 ATS and -0.16 units.

So, without further ado, let’s get down to it and peruse the NFL odds at all of the best online sportsbooks, and try to make our bookies cry this week. Let’s go!

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, September 19, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium

Don’t let the Saints’ throttling of the Packers last week fool you. The Jameis Winston you saw is just a mirage. I’m not referring to his raw talent, mind you, but his pristine decision-making last week which led to a grand total of zero interceptions. Such will not be the case against the Carolina Cats this week because their defense will give Winston cause for pause which will lead to poor decision making and ultimately turnovers.

New Orleans is banged up on defense, most notably Marshon Lattimore who will not play, which will allow Christian McCaffrey to run wild and get open for little flares from a rejuvenated Sam Darnold under center. The squares are pounding the Saints after they saw them eviscerate the Packers last week but that just gives us a much better number on the home hound here. For your NFL picks, grab the points and watch the Panthers roar this week.

NFL Pick: for 3 units (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Christian McCaffrey #22 of the Carolina Panthers. Grant Halverson/Getty Images/AFP.

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Sunday, September 19, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

The Patriots should have won last week and the world knows it which is why this line has been bumped from New England -3 to as high as -6 as of this Thursday morning writing. But after checking out SBR Odds, I can get New England and I’m going to pounce before it drifts to -6 and perhaps to -7 if the public keeps smashing the Pats.

The Patriots’ defense should have little worries getting to Zach Wilson, just as Carolina did last week when they sacked the highly-touted rookie six times. Now how do you think he will fare this week with his best offensive lineman, Mekhi Becton, on the sidelines with an injury?

https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1437900209070264320?s=20

New England’s linebacking corps got a huge upgrade in the offseason and their pass rush is only going to improve as the season progresses. The Pats will be licking their chops at the prospect of getting to Wilson which could lead to turnovers and very good field position for the Patriots’ offense.

Mac Jones was terrific last week and he should be surgical this Sunday if he doesn’t get the rookie yips. But Jones seems to be a different breed of cat. He doesn’t get flustered and was as cool as the other side of the pillow last week when faced with the Dolphins pass rush. I don’t see an issue for him here and I love that Belichick gets to toy with another rookie QB, which he has done so well throughout his career. All of this adds up to why I am going to play the Pats big, especially for a game so early in the season.

NFL Pick: for 4 units (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, September 19, 2021 - 04:05 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium

The Vikings looked lousy last week in their 27-24 loss to the Bengals and if Cincinnati beat them by a field goal, just what do you think the revamped Cardinals will do to them in the desert? This should be a massacre as Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins could be the most lethal pass/catch combo on the planet. Who from the Vikings is going to prevent these two from playing catch all afternoon long?

And when Minnesota has the ball, how are they protecting Kirk Cousins from the chaos-makers in the trenches like Chandler Jones and JJ Watt? If this doesn’t have all the makings of a blowout, I’m not sure what does. I’m trying to restrain myself from making this a 5-unit play but it is still so early in the season that what we have seen in Week 1 could be an aberration, an outlier if you will, which is why I will tone it down and be sensible here. Sorry, can’t do it…5 units - max play!

NFL Pick: for 5 units (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images/AFP.

The Woodman’s Corner

Woodman’s 2020 NFL Record (1-0, +1.00 units)

The Woodman eschewed conventional wisdom, as he is wont to do, and advised a wager on the lowly Houston Texans last week. And guess what? They shocked the world and defeated the retooled Jacksonville Jags with the golden boy, Trevor Lawrence, under center. Yes, the Texans looked like world-beaters and scored an outright victory as three-point home hounds.

This week the Woodman is going back to that same well and predicting another ATS cover from the Texans as they travel to Cleveland as big road pups, just the way he likes it. Woodman says, bet the farm on Houston (visit our Sportsbook Review).

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.