Swinger's NFL Week 1 Picks

Swinger destroyed the books last season and he’s back to do it all over again with his NFL picks found exclusively right here, at SBR! Without further ado, let’s see what the man has in store for us in the opening week of the season. The National Football League is finally back…and so are Swinger’s Picks!

2020 Season NFL Win Percentage: 63.3%Swinger’s 2020 NFL Record: 38-22-2 ATS (+38.95 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)

Guys, it feels crazy to say it but the NFL is back! Alright, so if you followed me last year, we absolutely crushed it, and I say “we” because I truly feel like we are all in this together. I’m not getting all sappy on you, and no I haven’t been drinking (little later), but when people put their faith in my decisions, as well as their money, I feel a responsibility to execute.

https://youtu.be/_BvLGDfTc_g

Needless to say, I am thrilled to have this platform and to work with the tremendous peeps here at SBR. Nothing but good vibes from them and the people who follow me on Twitter @SwingerAtSBR. But then again, when you hit over 63 percent and bring back nearly 40x their initial investment from Week 1 through the Super Bowl, well, let’s just say it’s not my dashing good looks and charismatic personality that keeps my followers coming back.

Before we get into it, let me say that if you are new, and thinking that this guy is blowing smoke then I welcome you to click my name at the top of this article and find all the Swinger’s Picks from last season. You will then see all my previous columns and find that my record reflects the cumulative total of all those weeks including my Super Bowl winner with the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Guys and girls, every week isn’t a winner and it isn’t going to be easy to match what we did last season. But stick with me and let’s push through this together. Keep the faith, my babies, even when we hit rough waters because your captain will eventually have the winds of fortune at his back.

Oh, and back for another season is the Woodman, who started out a dismal 2-9 ATS last season only to win nine straight until he went against your old buddy Swinger and took the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. No, The Woodman is not my alter ego but he is a professional capper who has won more than his fair share of NFL handicapping tournaments so give him a read as well.

We’re going easy in Week 1 because, really, who the hell knows what these teams are going to look like after offseason acquisitions, rookie drafts, and coaching changes. We use a 1-to-5-unit system, with one as our average bet and five being a Play of the Month kind of wager. What are we waiting for? Buckle up and let’s go!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium

I have to confess; I feel like Chalky von Chalkowitz after perusing the NFL odds because, after a quick scan of the matchups, the vast majority of favorites are lookin’ like Mila Kunis while the underdogs remind me of my drunk uncle Bob, replete with a wig and lipstick.

But when it’s closing time and the bartender says, “You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here”, sometimes those Mila Kunis types look quite a bit different when the lights go on. Even a sniper wouldn’t take them out and that’s the way I feel whenever I’m leaning too heavily on the chalk. Joe Q. Public gets slaughtered every season because he lays the lumber and never dreams about betting the dog.

Well, this week, I am as square as a microwave and am getting down on the Bills. I’m not convinced Buffalo will run away with the AFC East as they did last season and there could be a bit of regression to the mean for Josh Allen but I do believe the Steelers will be one of the biggest disappointments this season. They did a fast fade last season after tearing through the first three-quarters of their schedule.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills. Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images/AFP

You may recall the Bills defeated the Steelers last year, 26-15, and held Big Ben to 187 yards passing and intercepted him twice, one of which was a 51-yard pick-six.

Pittsburgh saw four of their five starting offensive linemen leave the reservation in the offseason and if this new crew - consisting of two rookies, fourth-rounder Dan Moore, and third-rounder Kendrick Green - doesn’t stand tough against a bolstered Bills pass rush with first-rounder Greg Rousseau and second-rounder Boogie Basham then Roethlisberger’s uniform is going to be dirtier than Andrew Dice Clay at the AVN Awards.

And just how is the Pittsburgh secondary going to stop the Buffalo aerial attack? I don’t see it and I just can’t wrap my mind around the Steelers keeping this one close. However, before we get too carried away, all we’ve seen so far is the preseason and that, my friends, is often a mirage. Anyway, we’re going to flip a few units on the Bills and hope Josh Allen looks as good as Mila Kunis when this one is done.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 1:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

Here we go again. I am almost embarrassed to be this pumped about yet another chalky, square, play. Does Jared Goff in place of Matthew Stafford give you hope that the Lions will shed the moniker of the league’s worst franchise? Not for me and as a matter of fact, I think the Cats are going to regress…if that’s at all possible. Okay, so they picked up what should be a stud tackle in Penei Sewell but what else? I mean even their primary offensive weapon, D'Andre Swift may not play but even if he does, do you think that his groin injury will just suddenly heal?

The Niners' defense is now fully healthy which is bad news for Goff and I don’t see how the Lions are keeping pace with Sweet Jimmy G and his arsenal of weapons. Maybe I’m just a wide-eyed square but even the public wins from time to time (and let’s hope they do this week) so we’re backing the road chalk in this one. I just hope this doesn’t become a pattern.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

D'Andre Swift #32 of the Detroit Lions. Sam Greenwood/Getty Images/AFP

The Woodman’s Corner

Woodman’s 2020 NFL Record (11-10, +0.10 units)

The Woodman came on like a house on fire last season after struggling to a dismal 2-9 ATS. But suddenly he woke up and ripped off nine consecutive winning weeks! Unfortunately for him, in the biggest game of the year, he shunned the dog and took the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

But here it is, 2021, and the season is all shiny and new. The Woodman is preaching to his legions to take the Houston Texans.

Woodman's Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.