Swinger's NFL Conference Championship Picks

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Swinger's NFL Conference Championship Picks
Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lines up against the Green Bay Packers defense. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

Swinger continued to wreak havoc and mayhem on the best online sportsbooks with another winning week. He is now clicking on over 63 percent of his picks, so let’s see what he’s got for us in the NFL conference championship matchups on Sunday.

Season Win Percentage: 63.15%

Swinger’s 2020 NFL Record: 36-21-2 ATS (+35.15 units)

Last week our NFL picks clicked again, as we went 3-1 against the spread and picked up 4.5 units in the process. The winners were the Bills -2 ½ (3 units), Browns +10 (3 units), and Bucs (1 unit), while our lone loser proved to be the Los Angeles Rams +7 (-125 for 2 units) bring us to a documented 36-21-2 on the season.

Well, well, well… Not bad I must say, nailing over 63 percent of our picks this season. That’s about as close I am going to get to boasting because I’ve been around too long to know that this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately kind of business. Nobody is going to remember the money they made by tailing me over these last 19 weeks if they lose this weekend. It’s just how it is, and I get it.

Without further ado, let’s destroy our bookmakers again on Sunday and keep cashing those tickets!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 24, 2021 – 3:05 PM ET at Lambeau Field

This could be better than any Super Bowl matchup, especially if the Bills upset the Chiefs. I cannot wait until Sunday afternoon to watch two legends locked and loaded in what should be a high-scoring, aerial showdown.

Here’s the way I look at this game. The quarterbacks are a wash, with Rodgers playing better than anyone on the planet this season while TB12 has been there, done that, and seen the movie so many times he can recite the script. This will be his 14th conference championship and the first quarterback in NFL history to start in three conference championship games in three different decades!

Look, Green Bay’s Davante Adams is the best receiver on the field. But Tampa Bay has much more depth at the position with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and even adding Cameron Brate in the mix, who has had eight receptions over the Bucs’ two playoff road wins.

Moreover, the Packers’ running backs will find the sledding mighty tough against a stout Bucs’ defensive line that is likely welcoming back Vita Vea at precisely the right time to anchor that already devastating run-stop unit. On the flip side, Green Bay’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries, which means not only will there be no holes for their running backs to roam through, but Rodgers’ protection, or lack thereof, could get him knee-deep in trouble.

The NFL lines on this game have dropped from Green Bay -4 to as low as -3 at some betting sites, but I spy, with my own little eyes, a +3 ½ (-113) over at Heritage and I’m about to pounce – and so should you!

Free NFL Pick: Bucs +3 ½ (-113) for 3 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Buccaneers +3 ½(-113)
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Josh Allen will face the Chiefs defense for second time this season
Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs. Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 24, 2021 - 6:40 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium

There are so many question marks entering this game, with the biggest being Patrick Mahomes’ availability to start for the defending Super Bowl champs. Personally, I would be stunned if he didn’t so I am making this wager on the Bills assuming the 25-year-old wunderkind will be under center this Sunday.

The Bills defense will tell the tale in this matchup, and I think Mahomes’ toe injury could be more problematic for him than the reverberating effects of the concussion. Josh Allen is playing on another level at this point, and if Buffalo incorporates more rushing into their offensive attack, it will allow Allen more time in the pocket when he does unload.

I am limiting my unit size on the Bills only because I suspect Mahomes will be playing, and it’s never a good idea to bet a lot of money against an elite quarterback.

Free NFL Pick: Bills +3 (-110) for 2 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Bills +3(-110)
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The Woodman’s Corner (10-9, +0.10 units)

The Woodman cashed with the Browns last Sunday, and just remember who told you he would heat up after getting off to a brutal 2-9 start only to cover the last eight consecutive weeks! Yes, this guy did, and I’m here to tell you that we’re wearing identical outfits to school this week as we are both firing on the Tampa Bucs to cover the number against the Green Bay Packers. Don’t overthink it, just bet it – Tom Terrific and the Tampa Bay Bucs +3 ½!

Woodman's Pick: Tampa Bay Bucs +3 ½ (-115) at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)

Buccaneers +3 ½(-115)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.