Swinger’s Week 16 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs players celebrating

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, December 22, 2016 8:58 PM GMT

The Swinger has put together a tantalizing triumvirate of NFL picks for Week 16 and is looking to sweep the board. Let’s see what he’s got in store for us this weekend.

[/]{"component":"podcast", "url":"http://www.static-files.com.s3.amazonaws.com/Sharp%20and%20Swinger%20Podcast%20Dec22nd.mp3", "imageId": "585d605f2cfbe624760433aa"}[/]

Swinger's Overall 2016 NFL Record: 28-28-1 ATS

Well, ain’t that a bitch. Here we are, two weeks left in the regular season and our NFL picks have gone a pedestrian 28-28-1 against the number. Last week was crucial as we could have leaped out to six games above the .500 mark but we did a role reversal and went a staggeringly disappointing 0-3. The Jets, Lions, and Texans all woefully underperformed – well, except for the Jets, known for such horrendous performances – and we sank to a dismal .500 on the season.

Well, there’s nowhere but up after last week’s disastrous results. You can’t say we don’t put an immense amount of effort and energy into these picks but sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way and instead of talking about bad beats, I am looking for big covers in Week 16. Let’s go!

 

Saturday 12/24 Falcons vs. Panthers

Are you really sold on the Atlanta Falcons? Yes, their offense has been impressive this season and Julio Jones just may be the finest receiver in the game today when healthy. But Jones has been hobbled recently yet the Falcons soared even without his services in wins over the hapless Rams and the woeful 49’ers. You may recall that Jones was a one-man wrecking crew in his last appearance against the Panthers. He lit the Cats up for 300 receiving yards, catching 12 passes on 15 targets. He also notched a touchdown in the process.

But Jones won’t come close to those eye-popping numbers in this game if he even plays at all. Cam Newton will have a wide open Kelvin Benjamin to go deep to and will connect because the best man in Atlanta’s secondary is gone for the season. His name is Desmond Trufant and he will be watching from the sidelines in this one. In addition, Cam Newton will also see plenty of opportunities for Greg Olson as the Falcons have had minimal success covering tight ends this season.

Last week was huge for the Panthers, a team that has wildly underperformed this year. I also love the fact that the Falcons’ assault of weak sisters in their two games leading up to this contest was on full display. It will create a boatload of public action, with the squares eating the road chalk up like ice cream. Let’s go with an emerging – though, too little too late – Carolina squad.

Free NFL Pick: Carolina +3 (-120) Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011417, "sportsbooksIds":[93,169,19,1096,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Saturday 12/24 Vikings vs. Packers

The Vikings will be without Harrison Smith, one of the premier corners in the league, and that has hampered this defensive group that was elite at the beginning of the season but is slowly devolving into mediocrity. On the off chance Smith does go, it is highly improbable he will be effective with his ankle injury. That said, Aaron Rodgers is feeling it and so are his Packers.

Green Bay has ripped off four consecutive wins and covered the number in three of those four games. Last week they squeaked by Chicago at Soldier Field but it was a divisional game and the Bears are playing much better ball. The Packers’ defense is suspect but Minnesota lacks an offense. That said, we will gladly lay what the NFL odds makers are requesting and bet the home chalk here.

Free NFL Pick: Green Bay -6 ½ Best Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011415, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,19,93,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Sunday 12/25 Broncos vs. Chiefs (Total)

This is the back end of a Christmas Day doubleheader. Divisional rivalries often make for interesting football in terms of covering the number. But we’ll leave that to the others as we are looking for a sluggish game fought down in the trenches. Do you have a clue as to where I’m going here? My thinly veiled references are always a dead giveaway.

Yes, under is the play here, my friends. Here are a few stats to back me up. Denver has averaged 11 points per game in December and not surprisingly, all those contests have gone way under the total. The under has also cashed in nine of 10 occasions when KC is installed as the favorite. Therefore, it stands to reason that the under is 6-1 when Kansas City is at home in good old Arrowhead stadium.

Neither offense scares me, and those who point to the 57 points these two teams combined for in November are perhaps unaware that nine of those points came in overtime, one was courtesy of an 86-yard kickoff return and another was the result of a 76-yard strike from Trevor Siemian to Bennie Fowler. That my friends is an aberration because Siemian doesn’t make a habit of deep strikes and all those points added up to an uncharacteristically high and misleading total.

Free NFL Pick: Under 37 ½ Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011423, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,169,93,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

The Woodman’s Corner (7-8 ATS)

The Woodman has awoken from his season-long funk and cashed another winner last week with the underdog Philadelphia Eagles, cashing as six-point road dogs, in a 27-26 straight up loss to the Ravens. This week he is back to backing birds with a nod towards the Cardinals of Arizona. The Redbirds are better than a touchdown road dog to Seattle and as you know, the Woodman loves his doggies. The Woodman says, “Bet the farm on ’Zona!”

Free NFL Pick: Arizona +9 (-125) Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011419, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,169,93,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]