Swinger’s Week 14 NFL Picks: Breaking the Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans

Swinging Johnson

Friday, December 8, 2017 6:12 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 8, 2017 6:12 PM GMT

After consecutive winning weeks we cashed with our top play on the board as the Jets proved to be worthy home dogs and defeated the Chiefs outright last week. Let’s check out the NFL odds and get busy banking big bucks in Week 14.

Swinger’s 2017 NFL Record: 15-22-1 ATS (-14.95 Units)

Of all the teams to salvage a week, the New York Jets did just that when they came away with a 38-31 victory over the visiting Chiefs. On our 1-5 unit scale that was a big four-unit play but unfortunately our two lesser selections failed as the Lions and Broncos both disappointed in spectacular fashion.

So here we are, four weeks left to the regular season and looking to simply get our dough back. There’s a long way to go including the playoffs and I am promising to turn that frown upside down. Let’s take a peek at the NFL odds and get a sweep this week!

Raiders (+4) vs. Chiefs

Alex Smith broke free of his slump last week as he tossed for four TD’s but KC still lost a 38-31 decision to the New York Jets. This week they are back home but the problem is their defense is still a shadow of its former self and Derek Carr should make mincemeat of the Chiefs’ patchwork secondary, while Marshawn Lynch will be available for a full 60-minutes of grounding-and-pounding.

The key difference between these teams is that the Raiders have a legitimate run game while the Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt has not only hit the rookie wall but has splattered all over it like a bug on a windshield. Therefore, Oakland’s defense can key strictly on the pass which makes interceptions far more likely to happen to Alex Smith than Derek Carr. I liked Oakland much at better at the opening line of +6 but I will still plunk three units on them at a less tempting number.

Free NFL Pick: Raiders +4 (3 Units)Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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MAX BET - Vikings vs. Panthers +3 (-120)

All good things must come to an end and this insane winning, and more importantly covering, streak of the Minnesota Vikings will be extinguished by the Panthers. Case Keenum has resurrected his career in Minnesota but Carolina has the defensive chops to make this one a long afternoon for the fifth-year veteran. Expect Cam Newton and a healthy Christian McCaffrey to exploit the Vikings’ one defensive liability, which is their linebacking corps. Carolina needs a victory and if you examine Minnesota’s recent wins you will undoubtedly realize they have gotten virtually all of the breaks and the ball has unfailingly fallen their way. This will also be Minny’s third consecutive game away from home so let’s exploit the road weary Vikings and pounce on the Cats for a max play bet.

Free NFL Pick: Panthers +3 (-120) (5 Units)Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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Titans -3 (+100) vs. Cardinals

I have been eschewing the favorites this season, not intentionally, but the value on the underdogs has been too good to resist. Over-valuing has been my mistake this season based on the results so far but in this case I will lay the field goal on the road and in the desert with the Tennessee Titans.

The Cardinals only have Chandler Jones as a pass rushing threat but the offensive line of the Titans will keep him and his cohorts in check. That means Mariota will have plenty of time to scan the field and hit his targets. The Cardinals are under the command of Blaine Gabbert and he does not frighten me one iota. Tennessee is due for a big victory and they’ll get it this Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: Titans -3 (+100) (4 Units)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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The Woodman’s Corner (9-4 ATS, +4.6 Units)

They say misery loves company but that’s not the case here as the Woodman flamed last week with the Houston Texans yet he has still covered the number in nine of his 13 NFL picks. According to my calculations, or should I say my calculator, that’s over a 69 percent cover rate which is certainly good enough to allow a mulligan from time to time.

This week the Woodman is backing another underdog in the form of the Baltimore Ravens. Apparently, he has plenty of company because they opened as six-point dogs but have been bet down to +4 ½ as of this Friday morning writing. If the Woodman is sellin’ then I’m buyin’ so back the thugs from Mobtown and get to cashin’!

Free NFL Pick: Ravens + 4 ½Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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