Swinger's Top ATS & Total NFL Picks For Wildcard Weekend

Swinging Johnson

Friday, January 8, 2016 10:37 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 8, 2016 10:37 PM GMT

Swinger is positively on fire with a record of 12-1 ATS over the last three weeks! The NFL odds makers are waiting to see his key releases but you can read them first, right here at SBR.

2015 NFL Record (31-29-1 ATS)
Before I take my bows and embrace the plaudits of having torn the books a new one over the last three weeks, I am very well aware we struggled throughout the season before I figured it all out. Therefore, my congratulations goes to those who weathered the storm with me and refused to lose faith. We are now officially over .500 and on a world class heater. Let's do it again - playoff style!

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Chiefs vs. Texans (+3)
We've got ourselves a rematch from Week 1 when the Texans hosted the Chiefs and Kansas City took home a 27-20 victory. Back then the NFL odds makers installed the Chiefs as one-point road favorites and 18 weeks later Pinnacle.com is hanging a line of Kansas City - 3 ½ on the road, again in Houston. The interesting thing here is that the Texans are going to win this game which means the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite.

The Chiefs are but a mirage my friends and if you examine their impressive 10-game winning streak it turns out that the longevity of the streak is actually more impressive than the victories themselves. Let's see what they have done over the last four weeks, shall we kids? They played weak sisters San Diego, Baltimore, Cleveland and Oakland, covering number against only the Ravens. Now don't misunderstand me, their defense has been tremendous but the Alex Smith led offense scares no one. Baltimore and Oakland actually averaged more yards per play than the Chiefs did.

On the flipside let me say right up front that the injury to Houston's left tackle Duane Brown is significant. He is a beast in the trenches and his loss will be felt but it in a bit of serendipity the Texans traded for his backup, seven-year man Chris Clark, in August when they acquired him from the Denver Broncos who just happen to play the Chiefs on a regular basis which means Clark is more familiar than the rest of his teammates about their opponent on Saturday.

In short both teams will have difficulty scoring points and this could come down to which field goal kicker has a better day. The KC defense is the real deal and Brian Hoyer will have to make short flares to targets coming out of the backfield or turn DeAndre Hopkins into a slot receiver. Hoyer will need an ultra quick release to escape the swarming Chiefs defense and JJ Watt will turn Alex Smith into butter if given the chance. But I have more faith in the Houston offense with a bona fide threat like Hopkins than I do with Alex Smith and his rag-tag crew. The Texans have home field advantage and have these stats on their side:

Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.

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NFL Pick: Texans +3 ½
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Total (40) - Chiefs vs. Texans
There are plenty of reasons to go low here and they are all valid. We can talk about an immense Chiefs defense and pedestrian offenses on both sides of the ball in this one. Sure the Texans have scored a combined 64 points over their last two games but those were against the Titans and Jaguars. Lousy teams with porous defenses.

On the flipside the Alex Smith led Chiefs offense has done little of anything. Their 10 game winning streak is truly remarkable particularly when you consider their poor start. However this team is winning because of their defense not their offense. You can imagine that JJ Watt will not make an already stumbling offense even more pedestrian when he looks to swarm Alex Smith. Here are some stats to consider when going low on Saturday.

Under is 4-1 in Texans last five home games.
Under is 5-0 in Texans last five home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last five games following an ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last six Saturday games.

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NFL Pick: Under 40 
Best Line Offered: at GTBets

 

The Woodman’s Corner (13-4 ATS)
As white hot as I have been recently I must bow to my colleague the Woodman who has isolated one key release each week and just nailed it all season long. Last week he did it again, backing the Redskins as three point road underdogs in his NFL picks only to see them cash as outright, straight up winners over the Cowboys. Can you say money line? I know I can.

This week he is getting down with a home dog, casting his lot with the AFC North division winning Cincinnati Bengals as they rumble with their rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Woodman says not to fear the Bengals' postseason disasters. Those are all history with AJ McCarron now under center replacing the injured Dandy Andy Dalton. It is the beginning of a new era and McCarron will win the day.
Play the Bengals +3 (-115) at GTBets.com so sayeth the Woodman.

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