Swinger's Top ATS & Total NFL Picks For The Divisional Playoffs

Swinging Johnson

Friday, January 15, 2016 12:41 AM GMT

Friday, Jan. 15, 2016 12:41 AM GMT

Swinger left the books in the dust with a 12-1 ATS record to wrap the regular season but did the splits last week as the playoffs opened. Let’s see what the NFL odds makers are offering this weekend and cash with our NFL picks.

2015 NFL Record (32-30-1 ATS)
My only side last week disappointed deeply as Brian Hoyer forgot how to play quarterback and the Houston Texans were flat out starched by the streaking Kansas City Chiefs. But my totals have been en fuego lately and such was the silver lining with under 40 in that same game being pretty much a breeze with KC cruising to a 30-0 victory.

It all added up to a 1-1 record in my NFL picks for last week but now we move on and look to sweep with a side and total that is going to fatten your wallet. Let’s go!

 

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Steelers (+7) vs. Broncos
Bettors are lining up to bet the Broncos because Peyton the Savior is back to write the final few chapters to his Hollywood ending. This line opened at Denver-6 in some shops and it has now been pushed to the critical seven which means plenty of dough has been wagered on Denver. Bookmakers prefer to stay off 3’s and 7’s but when the money is coming down too heavy on one side they have to move it. Although I think the smarter route is to move the money which would look like Denver -6 ½ (-20), (-30), -(40) and so on until you attract the other side based purely on the get-back rather than the number. But I digress.

The Steelers pass rush is phenomenal and the moment that Belleek figurine in the shape of Peyton Manning gets hit it will shatter into a million little pieces that will summon the pedestrian Brock Osweiler to bring his broom and shovel to pick up the pieces. If the Broncos decide to run the Steelers have a battle tested run stop unit that ranks 10th in the league to stop them dead in their tracks.

Now don’t misunderstand my glowing optimism for the Steelers’ chances on Sunday. The absence of elite wideout Antonio Brown will be a huge blow to the Pittsburgh offense but I am not so sure he won’t play. Reports are that he is participating in meetings and it would not surprise me one bit if Pac-Man Jones is right and that Brown is not nearly as injured as he purports. Big Ben Roethlisberger is also battling ailments but he will suit up and he will be fine. In fact, he will be better than Manning and that is exactly why the Steelers could win this one outright. But grab the points just in case.

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NFL Pick: Steelers +7
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Total (42.5) – Chiefs vs. Patriots
The weather should be fine for football in Foxboro on Saturday afternoon with the temperature hovering at about 40 degrees and no signs of rain or snow. But we can always cross our fingers and hope the heavens open because we will take every advantage we can get to get this game to go low. The NFL odds makers initially installed this game at 44 ½ but money talks and thus far the money is on the under which has pushed this total to 42 and it could go lower.

The Chiefs have been as stingy as Scrooge on Christmas Eve allowing a stunningly low 11.6 points per game during their 11 game winning streak headed into this one. The Patriots’ defense has been stout as well despite the fact that their offense has gone cold. New England’s defense has surrendered an average of just 17 points over their last four games.

On the flipside of the ball the Pats’ offense has been stalling to say the least. Julien Edelman has been sidelined which has wreaked havoc with Tom Brady and his normally high-octane offense. Edelman will be in uniform after watching from the sidelines over the last several weeks but how ready he is to rumble is another question entirely. In addition, tight end extraordinaire Rob Gronkowski missed two practices this week and his game readiness may be questionable as well. The Patriots will need to pass because we know they won’t be able to run as their rushing attack ranks 30th in the league and the addition of former All-Pro Steven Jackson to their backfield has failed to bolster their anemic ground attack.

Kansas City’s quarterback Alex Smith has done an admirable job. He is an intelligent, mobile quarterback who takes few chances and manages the game like he’s a coach on the sidelines. That is a good thing for a team but it doesn’t translate into gaudy scoreboard numbers. In addition his top receiving target Jeremy Maclin will most likely be out for this one having suffered an ankle sprain in the team’s wild card shutout win over the Texans. This should be a test of wills between two very good defenses that should limit the respective offenses.

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NFL Pick: Under 42.5
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

The Woodman’s Corner (14-4 ATS)
After last week’s bazillionth ATS cover with the Bengals +3 I’m not sure why Geraldo isn’t interviewing this guy. He is 14-4 against the freakin’ spread and not a whisper! Well, I’m no public relations savant but I know a good thing when I see it.

The Woodman is declaring his love for the Steelers and the truth be told I was all over Pittsburgh like white on rice even before I saw his pick. In the great minds think alike department, the Woodman says bet the farm on the Steelers +7 at Heritage.

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