Swinger's Most Profitable Bets to Add to Your Week 11 NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson

Friday, November 20, 2015 3:02 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 3:02 PM GMT

Swinger's back with his Week 11 NFL picks and is desperate to rebound from a punishing last week. Let’s review what the NFL odds makers are offering & find out which sides & totals are tops this week.

2015 NFL Record (13-18-1 ATS)
The only positive thing I can say about my recent slump is at the very least I’m honest about my midseason swoon. It has been a shame spiral as I have become as faded as a 70’s crushed velvet couch sitting in the San Diego sunshine. What an absolute horror show. Last week I included in my NFL picks a seven-point favorite that couldn’t even win the game, let alone get me a cover. Thank you not, St. Louis. Next, I chose a total in which the Bucs and Cowboys could muster only 16 combined points in a game where the NFL odds makers hung the total at 43.

These are dark days, my friends. Two undefeated teams, the Packers and Bengals, get beat by 11-point underdogs on their home turf. Day is night and night is day. The next thing you know Ronda Rousey will get knocked out by a preacher’s daughter. Alright, now I’m getting carried away.

We shall overcome, my people. Lets’ get to it.

 

Chiefs vs. Chargers (+3)
The Chiefs had the fortuitous scheduling opportunity to face Peyton Manning as he fades wincingly off into the sunset. Kansas City would not have enjoyed the same outcome as they did last week in defeating the Broncos at Mile High 29-13 with Denver starters DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib sidelined and superstar receiver Emmanuel Sanders ailing. Manning tossed four picks, was sacked twice and tossed for a grand total of 35 yards. That will certainly boost the Chiefs’ stats but it is not a true reflection of their defensive prowess, but rather the failure of a team that tried to get by with a gimpy quarterback and a shell of their defense.

On the flipside the Chargers enjoyed the bye week to get healthy. It appears the Bolts will welcome back to their offensive line King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin which will do wonders for both the protection of Phillip Rivers and hopefully get a run game started with rookie Melvin Gordon trying to recapture the electricity from his days at Wisconsin. The Chiefs boast a top 10 run stop unit but are a middling 15th against the pass. However they have not faced a quarterback like Phillip Rivers who leads the league’s top aerial assault and that will be the key. San Diego is getting players back on the defensive side of the ball which will help them limit the Chiefs both on the ground and through the air. The Bolts won’t need even one of these points that the oddsmakers are giving us but we will gladly take them anyway.

Free NFL Pick: San Diego +3 (+105) at JustBet

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Total 47 ½ - Colts vs. Falcons
The Colts will be without Andrew Luck for this one and many more as 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck takes the reins and will do his utmost not to make any mistakes. Hasselbeck has started two games in place of Luck this season and notched victories against both the Jaguars and Texans. He was not spectacular but he was efficient tossing a combined three touchdown passes and no interceptions for a total of 495 yards through the air. This will be a cautious game plan going forward and veteran running back Frank Gore will get plenty of reps. Ground games chew up the clock which is exactly what will happen in this one as Indy will do their damndest to keep Matty Ice and the Falcons off the field.

Speaking of Matt Ryan he has targeted Julio Jones like he is the only eligible receiver this season. Jones has gotten three times more Ryan love than any receiver on the Falcons and Roddy White is none too happy about it. It’s no surprise then that this predictable offense has failed to cover in their last five contests and not coincidentally all those games have gone under the posted total.

Let’s go low on this one as the Colts grind it out and the Falcons fail to soar.

Free NFL Pick: Under 47½ at GTBets

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The Woodman’s Corner (7-3 ATS)
What can I tell you? The man has been en fuego this season and his reign of terror on sportsbooks all across the land continues as he cashed once again last week with the Cardinals over the Seahawks.

For this week's picks, he declares his love of big dogs, as he has done many times in the past, with a pair of big, black loveable Newfies prancing about his backyard named Dewey and LuLu as well as opting for the biggest canine on the board with the San Francisco 49’ers getting 13 points as they travel to Seattle.

As he is wont to do, he is advising everyone to bet the farm on San Francisco +13 at GTBets.com.

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