Swinger's Conference Picks: Grab Your Chalk and Bet the Favorites

Swinging Johnson

Friday, January 19, 2018 1:42 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 19, 2018 1:42 PM UTC

Four teams left standing and two games on the slate this weekend. Let's analyze these matchups and keep cashing those tickets as we continue to bash the bookie with our NFL picks.

Swinger’s 2017 NFL record: 28-28-2 ATS (+10.65 units)

After going 2-1 ATS last week we finally clawed our way back to something inching closer to respectability in terms of handicapping percentage but due to our larger wagers cashing, we are more than 10 units ahead of the game. Last week was emblematic of our season with four units on the Patriots and three units on the Jaguars connecting while our smallest play, two units on under in the Jags/ Steelers game, flamed.

Let's face it, folks, the first half of the season was almost as miserable as the second half was stellar. But that's why they say each professional sports season is a marathon and not a sprint so don't chase because there will always be more games to bet and plenty of opportunities to make money. Let's take a look at the NFL odds and analyze both of these conference championship matchups set to kick on Sunday.

Sunday 3:05 PM ET Jaguars vs. Patriots

The number has tumbled since word broke of Tom Brady's hand injury he sustained in practice earlier this week. The fact of the matter is we don't know how badly he injured it and if it will have a deleterious effect on his performance. Personally, I believe they will shoot him up with whatever concoction numbs the pain and let Tom be Tom. Also, an underrated narrative on this game is the probable absence of Jags' starting free safety Tashaun Gipson, who was in a walking boot earlier this week.

I'll roll the dice with Brady and happily lay -7 versus the opening number of Patriots -9. The reason being is that Brady has a better chance of cracking the code that is the Jacksonville defense (much like Pittsburgh did last week) than Blake Bortles' chances of beating an impressive New England secondary. That, in a nutshell, is the key to the game and why New England will not only be moving on to the Super Bowl but covering the number as well.

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -7 (3 Units)Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3389599, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,43,1275,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Sunday 6:40 PM ET Vikings vs. Eagles

Let's get to the down and dirty of this game. First, the Vikings have a better quarterback with Case Keenum under center than the Eagles have with Nick Foles pulling the trigger. Is Keenum an All-Pro talent? No, but he was the NFC's November Player of the Month and has been far better than advertised after taking over for the injured Sam Bradford in Week 2 of the season. Secondly, both teams have the league's top run-stop units (Eagles ranked No.1 - Vikings ranked No. 2) but the difference is their ability to defend through the air. Minnesota clocks in with the 2nd ranked pass defense while Philadelphia owns a middling 17th ranked unit.

Super Tom @PW1266 tweeted at me, "how many units on Minnesota?" Apparently, he had already read my NFC championship write-up where I extolled the virtues of the Minnesota Vikings and predicted they would cover the number on Sunday. I would normally make this a maximum 5-unit play but the Eagles have gotten the job done despite what you may think of Nick Foles and do have home field advantage. In addition, I am always reluctant to go all-in with a road favorite as it resembles Joe Q. Public and the legions of squares just like him betting the chalky visiting team only to get slaughtered by the books week after week. So let's take it down a notch and bet the Vikes for four-units and be content with that.

Free NFL Pick: Vikings -3 (4 Units)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3389652, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,139,169,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The Woodman’s Corner (14-5 ATS, +8.5 units)

What more can you say about this guy? The Woodman has been unconscious this season and hit another winner last week with the Jacksonville Jaguars who defeated the Steelers outright as 7 ½ point underdogs. The man is capping at over 73 percent on the season and this is not the manufactured pap that you get from scamdicappers boasting of records that are massaged or downright false. This is 100 percent legitimate and if you don't believe me just click my name at the top of the page and you can review each and every Swinger's Picks column since the first game of the season.

This week the Woodman and I part company. Last week we were both solidly behind the Jaguars but on Sunday he likes the underdog Philadelphia Eagles. I don't see it that way but we'll let you be the sole arbiter of what you decide in your own NFL picks this week.

Free NFL Pick: Eagles +3½ (-120)Best Line Offered: Bovada
comment here