Swinger Is All About The Patriots For Super Bowl LI

New England Patriots Huddle

Friday, January 27, 2017 6:38 PM GMT

Swinger has been heating up as the season winds down and looks to cash in his NFL picks with a side and total in Super Bowl 51 between the Patriots and the Falcons.

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Swinger's Overall 2016 NFL Record: 38-34-1 ATS

After our 2-1 ATS week in the conference championships, we are officially making money on the 2017 NFL season. If you have been tailing me with $100 wagers, you have about $60 in your pocket to spend whenever and wherever you like. It will get you and a friend a decent lunch with enough left over to provide a good tip for your server. Just make sure you don’t have more than a cocktail apiece.

It has been a rough ride to be sure this year but hopefully, we can go out with a bang rather than a whimper in our NFL picks for Super Bowl 51. Let’s get at this game so we can turn that lunch into a fine dining experience with the companion of your choice. I’m ready to roll so let’s do this.

 

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

And here we are. A bit melancholy aren’t you? No more Sunday football, office pools, fantasy football and especially betting on which side or total will reap you a rewarding week after glorious week. After a few months of wintery darkness, the sun will shine, the birds will chirp and the NFL draft will be underway as a prelude to another season. Until then, we’ve got one more ticket to ride and it’s the feature attraction – Super Bowl 51.

Before we get underway, let me start you off with a mind-boggling stat. Favorites of six points or more have covered at a staggering 64.6 percent which is almost 10 percent higher than it ever has been. The Year of the Square to be sure and that has caused panic amongst bookmakers all over the globe. Joe Q. Public loves to lay the lumber and this year he went 58-21-2 on chalk equal to or greater than six points.

Although the Patriots are favored by three, and not six, we will side with the chalk in this one as well. Both teams boast potent offenses but only one has a decent defense and that belongs to the boys from New England. If you are superstitious, the team wearing the white jerseys has covered 11 of the past 12 Super Bowls and guess who’s wearing white? You guessed it - Tom Terrific and the boys from Foxboro.

The Falcons have the number one offense but seven of their 11 defensive starters are either rookies or second-year players. Brady will look at that defense like a German Shepherd eyeing a big old pork chop. Even without All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski there are simply too many weapons at Brady’s disposal to overlook New England’s vast scoring potential against a subpar defense like Atlanta’s.

Defensively, the Pats will do what they always do in this bend-but-don’t-break defense. They will exasperate their fans by allowing 10-yard short passes over the middle on third-and-nine but what is not considered is that Belichick’s skillfully crafted defensive schemes are designed to stop the home run hitters like Julio Jones from torching them. The Pats will have Malcolm Butler, their best secondary man, on Jones but he will get help to insure Jones doesn’t get off to the races. Just look at what the Patriots did to Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown in the AFC Conference championship. Do you believe the pass-catch tandem of Ryan-to-Jones is that much better, if at all than the dynamic duo from Pittsburgh? I don’t.

This will be a big win for the Patriots and I don’t see it being close. I believe that the Patriots will easily cover the three-point impost that the NFL odds makers are dealing and that the total will go over. Atlanta will get a garbage time TD in addition to whatever other points they score while the Pats will ring up 35-42 points. My final score is Patriots 38, Falcons 24.

 

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -3 & Over 58 

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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The Woodman's Corner (10-10 ATS)

The Woodman backed the Pack last week but they proved to be no match for the soaring Falcons. At 10-10 on the season, he is siding with the favorite in this one, which is not surprising for this Boston born and bred handicapper. He firmly believes the New England Patriots will have another Lombardi Trophy to add to their collection and I can’t say I blame him.