Super Bowl Picks: Where the Value Lies Heading into Week 16

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, December 16, 2014 4:18 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2014 4:18 PM UTC

As teams get eliminated frm playoff contention in the NFL, the value is going down on most Super Bowl Futures. I provided some good value during the season. If you made the bet, you stand to a chance to make a bundle, if not let's see if we can scrape up some of the remaining value that's left when making our betting picks.

Dallas Cowboys-14/1
I had mentioned to the public several times throughout the season that the Cowboys were a good bet. You can no longer get them at 28/1 and there was plenty of time to make the bet, but this is as far as we go with Dallas. Remember, if Dallas and Philadelphia (33/1) end up in a tie for the division, Philly wins. Although the Eagles have a nice hurry-up offense and some great NFL odds, they're not going to win the Super Bowl.

As long as Dallas has a healthy Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, and Dez Bryant, they're worth a small bet. Murray could be out for week 16 with a surgery, but I still expect the Cowboys to be in the mix and get into the post-season. There's hope in Texas.


The Top 4
The only way that there's value in New England (13/4), Seattle (13/4), Green Bay (9/2), and Denver (5/1) is if you nail the right team. After an embarrassing loss, I would've figured the Packers to have longer odds, but oddsmakers appear to think that the loss was a fluke. The two top teams are the Patriots and the Seahawks.

At this point, the Patriots appear to be the best bet to add to your NFL picks. They have the best defense that they've had in 10 years and they look like a team on a mission with Tom Brady at the controls.

The Seahawks are starting to come on really strong as of late with the oddsmakers as they're the defending Super Bowl Champions with the best defense in the NFL. I lean towards New England because the AFC is an easier conference and this might be close to the end of the road for Brady and Belichick, Seattle vs. New England could be a good combination bet for a Super Bowl matchup. 

As far as the Denver Broncos are concerned, they're not showing me anything different than last season. Peyton Manning looks a year older and his passes don't have the same zip on them. Although C.J. Anderson looks spectacular in the backfield, New England would have to get upset for Denver to make it to the Super Bowl and even at the Super Bowl, they could lose again if they face the Seahawks.

Bottom line is Peyton Manning is a great regular season quarterback, but the post-season is a different story. If Denver were to fall back where odds are concerned in the upcoming weeks, this is the only way that I would like them; otherwise "no dice".


Possible Value
Pittsburgh Steelers-25/1
Pittsburgh still has to get into the playoffs, but Ben Rothelisberger is a 2-time Super Bowl Champion and that weighs in on this debate. Let's not forget the combination of LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown. They are not as good as the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990's, but they have the same type of 3-headed monster that can get them deep into the playoffs. The value here is spectacular as Pittsburgh is coming off of a 27-20 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Keep your eye on this team. They have a long shelf life for future betting.

The New Orleans Saints (33/1) and Carolina Panthers (100/1) are the only other teams that I would consider. After Monday night domination by Drew Brees over Jay Cutler, oddsmakers really dropped the Saints price as they think New Orleans has locked up the division, but that's not the case.

New Orleans is only 1/2 game ahead of Carolina and the Panthers have been looking good with Jonathan Stewart at running back. Whether it's Cam Newton or Derek Anderson at QB, the Panthers can still get home field for a small portion of the playoffs if they pass New Orleans. The odds are what makes Carolina appealing and the next couple of weeks will clear up this situation quite quickly.


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