Super Bowl Picks: Where the Value Lies Heading into Week 14

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, December 2, 2014 5:32 PM GMT

Week 13 of the NFL is now in the books and the adjusted futures are out for the Super Bowl. Let's take a look and see if we agree with these odds and who we think are some solid bets.

The Green Bay Packers (7/2) and New England Patriots (15/4) lead the bunch as they met in week 13, but in my mind, nothing really has changed between these two teams. The Packers had the home field advantage and were expected to win. If this game was played at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots would have won.

It was the 1st meeting between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and there could possibly be a 2nd meeting in the Super Bowl if they continue to dominate. You saw Tom Brady's reaction after the game. He doesn't have many playing years left and he expects to win the Super Bowl. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers has been the best quarterback in the NFL this season and is just as competitive. The NFL odds fit these elite teams.

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Overrated

Denver Broncos (17/4)
After seeing the Broncos defeat the Kansas City Chiefs, I'm coming to the realization that maybe Peyton Manning is getting old and the neck surgeries did have an effect on this throwing ability. Some of Peyton's throws lacked velocity while other throws were way off the mark. Running back C.J. Anderson was all the Broncos needed and while I wouldn't write the Broncos off as a Super Bowl contender, I don't like these odds at all.

 

Philadelphia Eagles (12/1)
Mark Sanchez looked like a new man on Thanksgiving as the Eagles blew away the Cowboys on Dallas' home field. LeSean McCoy got the turkey, but he's still not as good as he was in the past and I think a lot of Philadelphia's success comes from Chip Kelly's west coast style offense.

It proved two things to me; the Dallas Cowboys (28/1) aren't conditioned to win a Super Bowl and a better team would beat Philly because this is still "Mr. Butt Fumble" behind center that were talking about.

 

Arizona Cardinals (28/1)
The moment that Carson Palmer got hurt, Arizona's season was ruined. The Falcons, who are 5-7, destroyed Arizona and I'm not surprised. Arizona could be 200/1 and I wouldn't bet on them.

 

Sleepers 

New Orleans Saints (28/1)
I said it last week when the Saints were 40/1 that their record didn't matter. What does New Orleans do? They beat Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. The Saints will win their division while securing a playoff spot. With Drew Brees at quarterback, anything is possible and I wouldn't bet on the Saints at odds any lower than this. Attention New Orleans backers; you know what to do.

 

Detroit Lions (25/1)
I have one thing to say about the Detroit Lions. If they played all season the way that they do on Thanksgiving, they would be a Super Bowl contender. The combination of Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson is unstoppable. In my estimation, Megatron is just as good at his position as Aaron Rodgers is at his. The Lions can't be counted out from our NFL picks.

 

Lottery Ticket Play

Houston Texans (200/1)
Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off of a 6 touchdown pass week and that's not the reason why I think this is a good lottery play. J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the game and is a game changer.

I know he's been implemented in the offensive scheme scoring touchdowns, but he has such a big effect on the game on the defensive side of the ball that you can't write the Texans out. Also, add in the fact that the Texans have Arian Foster running the football and the 200/1 is worth a small bet in this handicapper's opinion.