Super Bowl Picks: Where the Value Lies Heading into Week 12

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 9:03 PM GMT

In Week 12 NFL betting, some teams have managed to keep the oddsmakers respect despite losing and other teams have moved up on the board. We review the Super Bowls Futures and they require adjusting.

3-Way Tie
There's something that the odds makers respect about the Denver Broncos (9/2). Despite getting creamed by the St. Louis Rams, the Broncos are still one of the favorites along with the New England Patriots (9/2) and Green Bay Packers (9/2) to win the Super Bowl. I can see a great argument for the Patriots and Broncos as they have just destroyed the opposition, but I can't see an argument for the Packers.

Little known Jonas Gray has given the Patriots some confidence in the running game as he had the game of his life against the Colts. Gray rushed for 199 yards and 4 TD in a 42-20 win over the Colts while Aaron Rodgers maintained his status as the best quarterback in the NFL as he and the Packers demolished Mark Sanchez and the Philadelphia Eagles. Rodgers even had dropped balls and dominated, Both New England or Green Bay are great selections while the NFL betting odds indicate that; Still both are good plays.

 

Arizona Cardinals (10/1)
This is a tough one for me to absorb as Arizona has clearly been the best team in the NFL with only one loss and Carson Palmer is out for the season. Now, I've heard news that Larry Fitzgerald is hurt. Arizona keeps winning but you know what happened to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs last season when Jamaal Charles got hurt. I can't back this play even though Arizona has every right to be one of the betting favorites.

 

Capable When On a Hot Streak
San Francisco 49'ers (12/1) and the Indianapolis Colts (16/1) are both capable of making it deep into the playoffs if they get hot. San Francisco hasn't been the same team since their Super Bowl loss and even though they beat the Giants, the didn't look very good.

Indianapolis looked bad against the Patriots as they were simply unable to stop Jonas Gray, a player that's a relative unknown, as New England dominated at Lucas Oil Stadium. Even though I don't feel good about either of these teams, Andrew Luck has the capability of taking Indy to the Super Bowl and this is the best odds that you will get the Colts at.

 

Still Great Value
Dallas Cowboys (18/1) has been the team that I thought had great value and have been touting all along and coming off the bye week, they face a 3-7 Giants team. If the Cowboys were to somehow lose this nationally televised game, their odds would be longer and I still would like them. Tony Romo is trying to recover with back problems but he's one of the toughest players in the NFL.

 

Longshot
Pittsburgh Steelers (28/1)
The Steelers are the longest shot on the board that have a chance to win the Super Bowl. As long as their core 3 of Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell, and Antonio Brown stay intact, this team has a chance. We saw LeVeon Bell just steamroll the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football while Antonio Brown remained Big Ben's favorite target and one of the best wide receivers in the league. This team is coached well and Roethlisberger has the experience of winning 2 Super Bowls previously. 28/1 are superb odds for a 7-4 Steelers team, but first they have to fight their way into the post-season.