Friday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
After months of hard work, dedication and sacrifice, we have finally made it to the end, my friends. Our final NFL Odds Update of the season is here, however before you hold your heads and cry yourself into a deep sleep, let’s examine some late NFL Odds movement we have seen in the Super Bowl lines. Yesterday we recapped some of the sportsbooks that moved the spread down to -1 ½, however that seemed to be very short lived.
Yesterday morning, a few books like The Greek and Matchbook had the spread moved all the way back down to Broncos –1 ½. However it didn’t last long, as the only book to still have the line at -1 ½ is The Greek. All the others are back up to -2, and there are still some at -3 like Bovada.
However according to the SBR Consensus Data, the Seahawks share of the market just keeps growing. By the end of the day today or early tomorrow morning, the Hawks will have 40% of the money wagered on this game, and that is nearly double where they were this time last week. The number of big bets is still well in favor of the Seahawks, however at this point the Broncos still seem to be the public’s darling.
Either way this one goes, it does appear that we have our number. Even though signs of the line shifting were going on over the last 24 hours, the movement back to -2 for most books typically means that even though the money may not be equal, the spread isn’t likely going to move any more. At -2, this would be the closest Super Bowl spread since Super Bowl XII’s -1 ½ spread. That is unless you count Super Bowl XLVI’s spread of -2 ½.
Thursday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Seahawks vs. Broncos
We are fast approaching the big NFL game this weekend, and after talking yesterday about a contingency plan for these NFL odds in case of more big bets on the Seahawks came in, we might have to put that plan into action. More wagers came in on Seattle overnight, and now three sportsbooks have their NFL Odds at -1 ½ in favor of the Broncos. We saw a lot of large bets on Seattle come in over the last 72 hours, however in the last 24, there have been even more.
The Seahawks now have over a third of the money being wagered on this game, which is the time they have occupied this much of the market. Overnight, the Hawks took several more line moving bets, and books like Pinnacle, The Greek and Matchbook were forced to move their line down once again. I said yesterday that the possibility of the line dropping below two points was real, however I didn’t realize it would happen this quickly. While Ladbrokes is the only other book that has the spread at -1 ½, others could follow if this trend turns things around.
These recent developments have brought to light what some have speculated. It really looks like the sharps are split on this game, and if that’s the case, you might be better off betting props instead of the spread or total of 47. This game is likely going to go down to the wire, and with all of the movement in the spread over the last two weeks, it might be better off just to lay off.
Wednesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
The finale of the NFL season is just four days away, and the NFL Odds seem to be settling down nicely over the last 48 hours. Even though there have been some shifts in the money being wagered recently, the NFL odds stil have the Broncos at -2, with the total at 47 points. Let’s take another look at these Super Bowl prices, and see if there is any value left standing after the last ten days of wagering.
Yesterday we talked about how much money was coming in on Seattle, and while it cooled off overnight, there was still some market shifting. The Broncos still are taking nearly two of every three dollars wagered on this game, but like we walked about yesterday, the Hawks seem to be taking the sharp money.
Right now 45 $1000+ wagers have come in on the Seahawks according to the SBR Consensus page, opposed to only 10 for the Broncos. While Denver has taken more big bets in the last 24 hours according to the Consensus page, it does seem that most of the money on Seattle is sharp money.
This has led to more of a drop in their moneyline price more than anything. Right now the best price you can get on the Seahawks is +120 at Bovada, however almost every other sportsbook has the moneyline down to +110 or lower. Bet365 has the price down to +105 Seahawks.
If this wagering pace continues on Seattle, then the spread might drop again. I mentioned yesterday that I think there’s a chance it goes below -2, however there is going to have to be another big swell in Seahawks betting like there was this past weekend. If not, I think we are looking at the NFL Odds that will close at the time of kickoff on Sunday.
Tuesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
While the NFL Odds for the Super Bowl have been steady for the last 48-72 hours, there has been a large uptick in betting on the Seahawks after basically all the money coming in on the Broncos earlier last week. There has also been a large shift in the SBR Consensus Beta from the last few days that looks like a lot of sharp action on one side.
However we’ll start with the large increase of money we’ve seen on the Hawks in the last few days in general. Seattle has gone from occupying 20% of the market last week to nearly 33% today. If this trend continues, then the books will be close to even on both sides once Sunday finally arrives, but the interesting movement in the last 72 hours has not been the NFL odds of -2 and 47.
According to the SBR Consensus page, the amount of bets that are at least one thousand American dollars or more is much higher on the Seahawks than the Broncos. As of the last update, the Hawks have taken 43 of the total 50 wagers that are over $1000, which would indicate that the sharps might be on the Seahawks at +2, and likely their moneyline price as well. There could be another shift in these NFL Odds before Sunday, and it will likely be down more towards -1.
If that many sharps are actually on the Seahawks, then the books might be forced to lower the NFL Odds, however at this time the Broncos still have two dollars for every one that the Hawks have. The industry is uniquely still cheering for the Hawks right now, although after looking like there was no chance of that changing, if this recent pace keeps up, we could see enough money come in on Seattle where the books move the spread to -1 or even back to a pick em’.
Monday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Let’s start our final week of NFL odds coerage with a look at the spread, and how much money has come in over the weekend.
The spread has all but settled down to Broncos -2. The few holdouts from the end of last week that were at -2 ½ are all down to two points, and the only sportsbooks that don’t have the spread at two points has it at -3, and those include Bovada, Sports Interaction and Intertops.
The total is still sitting at 47 points, and we have even seen it start to dip below that for the first time in the last week and a half. BetOnline is the first book to touch 46 ½, which is the first book to dip below 47. If you really like the over, this might be a book and number to target. Other books like The Greek and 5Dimes have the spread at 47 ½ still.
According to the SBR Consensus Beta, there has been a strong push of money coming in on the Seahawks, which could have been the reason for the line dropping some at certain shops. At the end of last week, the Broncos had just over 80% of the money being wagered on the big game, however as of Monday morning, Denver only holds about 69% of the market share. Over the weekend, the Hawks saw more than three dollars for every one coming in on Denver, which is exactly what I thought would happen. However, the spread seems locked in at -2. It would take a lot more money (and in much larger amounts) than what came in over the weekend to move the line below two points in my opinion.