Friday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
We have reached the end of the workweek, and while we also have to suffer through one more week before the Super Bowl, I am back one more time this week to give you your final pre-Pro Bowl odds update. While the movement in these odds has calmed down significantly, let’s take a look and see the activity from the last 24 hours, as well as what future activity could be in store for these Super Bowl NFL Odds.
It appears as if more sportsbooks are settling the spread down to -2 Broncos, as yesterday nearly 60% of sportsbooks had the spread at an even two points. Even though we haven’t seen almost any movement over the last 48 hours, I suspect after the Pro Bowl we will see another spike in wagering for this spread. However the sportsbooks are going to have to move the lines sharply to really affect the amount of money that has already poured in on Denver. Still on Friday the Broncos have taken almost 80% of all the money wagered, and two out of every three wagers have still come in on Denver. However if a book gets bold and starts to move the spread up past three points, I can almost guarantee there will be action the other way.
The total is still sitting at 47 points and it might be the number that stays there. There are only a handful of sportsbooks that have the total on a number other than 47, but it’s so few that is really has little affect on the market. However if the spread starts to move again, the total might not be too far behind.
Thursday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
We are approaching the one-week out mark for the NFL’s biggest game, and even though we have seen some huge NFL Odds movement, the line seems to be finally settling down. However we have seen some small action over the last day, and there are some sportsbooks that are lowering the spread.
After the Broncos basically took over the market over the last 72 hours, it finally seems like there is some push back with the NFL Odds. Several books that had the spread at -2 ½ have dropped it down to -2 Broncos, and even though there are still a couple sportsbooks that have the spread at -3, they are so few and far between they have little affect on the market. If you take all of the sportsbooks listed on the SBR Odds page, nearly 60% of them have the spread at an even two points, and it looks like it might stay there for the time being. The total hasn’t moved since yesterday afternoon and still sits at an even 47 points at most sportsbooks.
According to the SBR Consensus data, the Seahawks have slightly closed the gap between them and the Broncos when it comes to money wagered on either side, however it was so small that it almost doesn’t need mentioning. Today the Broncos are taking over 79% of all money wagered on this game to date, which is just one small percent less than they were just 24 hours ago. The average bet size is where we’ve see the biggest closing of the gap, but the Broncos are still garnering wagers over double the average size of all the Seahawks’ wagers. While it may not be drastic, but the sportsbooks will move these lines some more within the next week to induce some betting on Seattle.
Wednesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Even though we still having roughly ten days until the kickoff of the Super Bowl, the NFL odds have been moving and shaking like none other. After opening in favor of the Seahawks late Sunday night, in the last three days, the odds have moved roughly three to four full points to now favor Denver at -2 ½. Some sportsbooks even have the number at -3, while the total has held steady in between 47 and 48 points.
The huge amount of betting on the Broncos isn’t unheard of, but it’s somewhat surprising. According to the SBR Forum Consensus data, the Broncos have taken nearly $4 million in wagers over the last 72 hours, while the Seahawks haven’t even cracked $900,000. Currently, the Broncos have more than four out of every five dollars being wagered on this game.
While I expect some betting to come back in on the Seahawks, it might not be enough to even up the damage done. The Seahawks are going to have trouble disguising their defenses up against Peyton Manning, and with how hot the Denver defense is right now, we may be in line for a blowout. If the Broncos win next Sunday, it will be a huge payday for bettors, and a very bad day for the books unless a lot of money comes in on the Hawks in the next ten days.
The spread might shift up some but it finally appears as if every book have temporarily settled the number to 2 ½. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it go up past -3 and into -3 ½, because I’m sure that would immediately trigger some action the other way on Seattle, which the books need at this point. Some Sportsbooks like Bovada and Intertops have the spread already at -3 Denver.
Tuesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
After seeing the NFL odds open up in favor of the Seahawks, the line has been dropping out after a ton of wagering on the Broncos. Let’s take a brief moment to update the NFL Odds for the big game, and see where the line and value are headed.
We talked yesterday about how much wagering came in over night on the Broncos, and it moved the NFL Odds to -2 ½ in most instances. While the total looked to stay steady at 48 points over Monday night, the spread has seen some more early line movement.
After touching -2 ½ yesterday, wagering on the Seahawks obviously kicked in on Monday evening, because the spread is back down to -2 in some instanced. However about half of the sportsbooks listed on the SBR Odds page still have the line at -2 ½, and sportsbooks like Bovada have it at -3 in favor on Denver.
Although we don’t yet have a very accurate prediction of the weather in Northern New Jersey on February 2nd, early indicators look pretty good, which has to favor the Broncos. All throughout the playoffs we have been hearing about a snowy Super Bowl, but by the looks of the forecast, the snow looks to be coming early. Current weather forecasts for the 2nd look to be cloudy with a temperature around 40 degrees Fahrenheit, which is close to perfect football weather.
As long as the sky doesn’t open up before the game and dump a bunch of snow, this has to be good news for the Broncos. I’m sure the Seahawks are hoping for blizzard conditions, but the fact of the matter is, either way, the Broncos look like the best bet here.
Monday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
After opening as -1 favorites, the NFL odds have the Seahawks as +2 ½ underdogs against the Broncos, with a total of right around 47 ½ points. We still have less than two weeks until the Super Bowl, so these odds have a long way to go before kickoff next Sunday evening. However in only 12 hours, the line has moved as much as three full points already, and it is nowhere close to settling.
Before the conference championship games, the Broncos were +1 underdogs to both the 49ers and Seahawks, and after the NFC game ended, most books opened with the Hawks as one-point favorites. Sportsbooks like BetOnline had the game as a pick em’ while others had the Broncos as one-point favorites.
However apparently a ton of overnight money came in on the Broncos, and they have moved to solid favorites. Some sportsbooks such as Heritage and BetOnline have already moved the spread to favor Denver at -2 ½, and before we could even be 24 hours removed from the conference championships, the Broncos have become the solid odds favorites.
I am not surprised by this line movement, and if you watch the video above that I filmed on Sunday night right after the games ended, I seemed a little surprised that most books had the Broncos as underdogs to open up. Seattle’s main weapon is their home field advantage, which they couldn’t be farther from in the Super Bowl, and I like to think that Richard Sherman jinxed them after the game with how humble he was in his postgame interview.
The Broncos’ defense played very well against the Patriots, and I think it was much better than anyone expected them to play. If they can carry that over into New York in 13 days, they are going to run away with this game. If Peyton Manning and that offense get a 10-point or more lead, this game is over. The Hawks don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Denver offense, and as long as Knowshon Moreno is ok from his rib bruise (x-rays were negative) the Broncos have the advantage on offense.
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Even though the SBR NFL Betting Consensus data won’t be out for a few more days, we do know that two out of every three wagers have come in on the Broncos, however that is probably old news considering the drastic line movement we have seen over the last 12 hours.
The total has ticked up a half point over night at some books as well. Shops like Heritage and Bookmaker both have the total at 48 points, and it would not surprise me at all to see that number keep climbing as the week goes on. We almost always see totals increase in big games as the week goes on, and once the public gets ahold of these NFL Odds, you can bank that the total will start to move around some more.