Super Bowl Picks: Player Props for Russell Wilson, Jermaine Kearse & Luke Willson

David Lawrence

Friday, January 30, 2015 2:50 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 30, 2015 2:50 PM UTC

When making NFL Player Props for Super Bowl Sunday, it helps to have detailed information. Here we will focus on the Seattle Seahawk's Russell Wilson, Jermaine Kearse & Luke Willson.

Wilson First Pass Completion Over 8 Yards: -120
Under 8 Yards: +100
The Seahawks’ game plan is always based on not making mistakes and playing things safe so that the defense is in position to win games. Wilson might throw a bomb at some point in the first half, but on his first pass of the game, he’s going to play it safe and try to set up Marshawn Lynch in a second and short situation. It’s very likely the Seahawks’ first completion will be a short gain, though a broken tackle is all it would take to turn a seven-yard gain into a 12-yard gain, which would alter the result of this prop bet.


Wilson’s Longest Pass Completion Will Be Over 37.5 Yards: -120
Under 37.5 Yards: +100
Will Wilson complete a pass of more than 37.5 yards? He was fortunate to get a chance to throw a couple of long passes in the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers. He played very poorly and was lucky his teammates were able to force overtime. All in all, Wilson has been inconsistent, and the Seahawks are probably going to give him a modified game plan that will be easier for him to handle. Expect him to not complete a long pass.


Wilson TD Passes Over 1.5: +105
Under 1.5: -125
How will this offense score? Marshawn Lynch running the ball is the most likely answer. Therefore, expecting Wilson to throw two or more touchdown passes would indicate that Seattle is probably going to score a lot against New England. That’s not very probable. The under looks like a good NFL pick here.

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Wilson First Rushing Attempt Of Over 5 Yards? -130
Under 5 Yards: +110
The Super Bowl involves players who are so keyed up and emotional at the time of kickoff. The energy on a defense can make it physically imposing – enough, also, to overrun gaps and not pay attention to certain fakes or assignments. If Russell Wilson tries a keeper on an option read, he has a very good chance of getting more than five yards if New England isn’t alert.


Wilson QB Rating Over 90: -115
Under 90: -115
The awful, near-zero rating for Wilson in regulation during the NFC Championship Game is probably not going to be replicated here, but Wilson still did struggle against Green Bay and is likely to play this game cautiously. Especially if you think New England will win, you should bet the under here, but there are good reasons to think Wilson won’t hit 90 even if Seattle wins or the game is razor-close.


Jermaine Kearse Scores a TD: +250
No TD: -300
Seahawks fans know that before his winning touchdown in overtime against Green Bay, Kearse was targeted with a lack of success from Seattle’s passing game. Kearse could not break free until that one moment in overtime when he put the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. New England’s corners and safeties should be more than good enough to prevent Kearse from making a play that matters. He won’t score a touchdown in this game, so bet ‘no’ at -300 NFL odds.

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Luke Willson Longest Reception Over 15 Yards: -145
Under 15 Yards: +115
The Seahawks’ tight end is not a particularly good player, though he has managed to make an occasional contribution in the playoffs. Willson will be a non-factor, and the under should be a solid winner in this game.

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