Super Bowl Picks: Pick Em' Odds Give Patriots the Value

Jordan Sharp

Monday, January 19, 2015 4:23 PM GMT

Super Bowl Number 49 will feature the Patriots and the Seahawks, and the NFL Odds makers have opened the betting lines at a PK, with a total of 48 ½ points. Here’s an early look at potential NFL Picks for the Super Bowl.

Patriots Blow Out Colts; Advance to Brady and Belichick’s Sixth Super Bowl
It was a beat down of epic proportions, and even though Andrew Luck did all he could, he could not overcome a smothering defense, and his defense giving up touchdowns all over the third and fourth quarters. In the end the Pats won 45-7, but not without some controversy. Deflate-gate is running wild this morning as it was reported that the NFL is investigating the Patriots for allegedly deflating some footballs. However whether that’s true or not, the Patriots have a date with the defending champions on Arizona, and in order to win that game, they are going to need all the balls properly inflated.

The Seahawks however did look vulnerable this past week against the Packers. Eddie Lacy was running well to start the game, and of course Russell Wilson threw four picks in the game. The Seahawks’ got another Herculean effort from Marshawn Lynch, which ended up saving them in the fourth, and even though he had four picks going into overtime, Wilson threw a 35-yard bomb to Jermaine Kerse to seal the game.

 

NFL Odds Movement and Total Breakdown
Right now the spread for Super Bowl 49 probably isn’t going too far. Unless some crazy injury news comes out before the game within the next few weeks, I doubt either team gets favored by more than -1 ½. Right now only a couple of sportsbooks have the spread at -1, and even then the odds are at even money (+100) or at (-110).

However the more interesting number right now is the total at 48 ½. Both of these teams are going to want to run the football, because these two teams likely have the best two secondaries in the NFL right now. If we see a Super Bowl where both teams run the ball 25 or 30 times, the under is going to have a ton of NFL Odds value. I doubt the Patriots have the success they did this past week against the Seahawks, and I also doubt the Patriots give up a ton of yards to Lynch either.

The game that covers the spread will come down to defense and running the ball, and these two teams are quite evenly matched in those areas. If that’s the case, I am probably going with the better quarterback and offense, and that is absolutely the Patriots. The Seahawks did have a miraculous comeback against the Packers at home, but on a neutral site, and against a better team, I don’t think they’ll be able to overcome mistakes like they did in the NFC Championship. While I don’t think the NFL Odds will move much throughout the weeks ahead, I do think the Patriots on the moneyline might be a solid NFL Pick going forward.[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":1194136, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Compare the Super Bowl Prop Odds For This Year's Matchup.