Super Bowl Picks: Patriots vs. Seahawks Betting the Total

Kevin Stott

Monday, January 26, 2015 3:02 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 26, 2015 3:02 PM UTC

The Total for Super Bowl XLIX opened at 48½ and was bet down to 48, where it seems to be sticking almost everywhere a week away from the big game. Will there be any late movement and is there a decent pick to be had here?

Not Too Much Much Early Movement on Super Bowl XLIX Total
Super Bowl XLIX is now just a week away, and after opening at 48½ on NFL odds a week ago and rising to 49 in a couple of places, the Total Points number was quickly bet down to 48 where the number stands in almost every sportsbook and casino here in Las Vegas, Europe and offshore, including the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook—formerly the Las Vegas Hilton and the LVH SuperBook—The Mirage (which had it as high as 49½), Station Casinos, Pinnacle, SIA, bet365, William Hill, Sky Bet, and The Greek, among many others. and Canadian operator Bovada both currently (Sunday evening) have the Total posted at 48½ for the game with -115 juice on the Under (-105, Over), as does BookMaker and Heritage (Over -111), while 5Dimes has the Total set at 47½ with normal -110 vigorish on both the Over and the Under. So, if you really like the Under in Super Bowl XLIX this coming Sunday (February 1) between the AFC representative New England Patriots and the NFC representative and defending NFL champion Seattle Seahawks, or Bovada may be the place to make your bet(s) although the ½-point difference between the 48 and the 48½ would only matter in the context of a game ending exactly on 48 points, making an Under Bet at or Bovada (48½) a winner in that specific little scenario. And if you like the Over right now, 5Dimes has the best available current number (47½).

With one of the best defenses in NFL history on display with the Seahawks (#1 Scoring, #1 Passing, #3 Rushing) and a much-improved Patriots defensive unit this season, bettors and handicappers seem fairly tentative to fire on either the Over or the Under so far for this game—but that has been the pattern in recent years for the Super Bowl after a flurry of early action—and it wouldn’t surprise in the least if the number stayed at 48 in most places until around Thursday or Friday when some mini-rumbling and movement could eventually begin. But one thing seems pretty clear: Any idea of creating a potential Middle here in this Super Bowl may be limited to just one or maybe two spots—48 or potentially likely only 47 or 49, depending on coming movement—and trying to middle this particular Super Bowl with Totals bets of Over 47½ and Under 48½ seems like a grand waste of time and would be something only for the filthy rich and overly clever. Trying to hit on just one spot here is really crapshoot gambling, although still possible.

But anyone smart and financially able to bet the Super Bowl XLIX Early Line at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook—released in the summer—could have bet this game’s Total Under 52½ at at least one point (11/11/2014) this NFL season and then doubled back and got, or potentially will get, an Over 48 ticket, creating a more appetizing potential Middle with four spots—49, 50, 51 and 52—creating potential winners for both bets with a potential 48 pushing. And, as you can see, with two unknown opponents in the game, oddsmakers at the SuperBook posted a number significantly higher than the 48 that’s been hanging on the board for days at the world-famous sportsbook here in Sin City.

Thoughts on the actual direction this number will go from this point forward are unclear, but the logical feel is that it may actually dip down a ½ point in the places where it’s at 48 (to 47½) late in the week before possibly jumping back up that ½ point or full 1 point (back to 48 or 48½) near game time on this Sunday (NBC, 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT) from heavy weekend betting for the game of all games which is being held at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, the home of the Arizona Cardinals.

As far as making a NFL pick on the Super Bowl’s Total, with a predicted 4 TDS and XPs (28 points) and a total of 5 FGs (15 points = Total of 43 points) for Seattle and New England in this game, the thought is that because of the defenses, the likely heavily rushing-oriented offensive attacks, the climate-controlled conditions at UoP Stadium and the chess-like battle which is sure to evolve between Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, that this game will end up with a total of somewhere between 42 and 48 points and not turn into a high-scoring shootout despite the world stage and the presence of two of the best and most creative QBs in the National Football League, New England’s three-time Super Bowl-winner Tom Brady and Seattle’s one-time Super Bowl champ, Russell Wilson.

What more on Super Bowl line movements? Check out our Super Bowl XLIX Odds Movement Update here. 

Free Super Bowl XLIX Total Pick: Under 48½ at Bovada

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