You will get little argument from the masses that the Super Bowl is annually the biggest day on the sports calendar. We look to parlay together our Super Bowl picks to max out our pay out on the season's final game.
Highly Anticipated Super Bowl
This year’s Super Bowl takes place in Glendale, Arizona at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The big game will pit the defending world champion Seattle Seahawks versus the New England Patriots. The opening kickoff is slated for 6:30 PM ET, and the game will be televised nationally by NBC. According to the NFL betting odds at BetOnline, the Patriots are a 1.0 point favorite, and the current posted total is 47.5. These teams last met on 10/14/2012 in Seattle, and the Seahawks came away with a 24-23 win as a 4.0 point home underdog. The game also went over the total of 42.5.
Why I like the Over
Both of these teams are coming off two consecutive high scoring postseason games. Seattle saw both of their playoff games go over the total, and there was an average of 49.0 combined points score per contest. The Patriots two playoff games averaged a combined 59.0 points being scored. Seattle amassed 745-yards of offense in those two postseason wins, and New England accumulated 819-yards.
Seattle’s defense finished the 2014 regular season by not allowing any of their final seven opponents to gain 300-yards or more of total offense. As a matter of fact, in the last six of those games, the Seahawks held the opposition to 245-yards or less. However, they’ve allowed 362-yards to Carolina, and 306-yards to Green Bay in the playoffs. The Packers game may have even been a bit misleading. Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy became ultraconservative with his play calling, attempting to preserve what seemed like a very comfortable lead on the road. The Seahawks have gone over the total in all seven games the past three seasons when not playing at home, and when facing a non-conference opponent. Those games combined to average 51.8 points scored.
New England has scored 30-points or more in ten of their eighteen games this season. As a matter of fact, they’ve scored 41-points or more on six separate occasions. The Patriots will be facing an opponent (Seattle) in the Super Bowl which is averaging 375.4 yards of total offense per game. They’ve gone over the total in nine of ten games during the past three seasons, when facing an opponent that averages 375-yards or more of total offense per contest. Those ten contests have seen an average of 58.7 points combined scored per game. The Patriots star quarterback Tom Brady has seen 46 of his 72 (63.9%) career starts go over the number when the total is 44.0 to 51.5. Brady has also seen 18 of his 28 (64.3%) career starts go over the total when facing an opponent that allows 13.3 to 19.3 points per game.
Why I Like the Patriots
First and foremost, if I had to pick a head coach right now in a big game, Bill Belichik would be my choice each and every time. Let’s stop and think about this for a second, since the start of the 2003 season, the Patriots have gone 167-50 under the guidance of Belichik, and that’s good for an incredible .770 winning percentage. Considering this is a virtual even game in regards to the point-spread, those numbers weigh heavily into the handicapping equation. Even more impressive during that time frame has been the Patriots 72-34 record away from Foxboro, and that’s good for an incredible .679 winning percentage.
Then there’s Tom Brady. When the perennial all-pro quarterback has faced a top notch defense that allows an average of 13.3 to 19.3 points per game, we’ve not seen a decline in his performance level. Brady has gone 20-9 (.690) as a starter in that exact situation, throwing for 54 touchdowns versus 18 interceptions, and compiling an outstanding quarterback rating of 94.5.
Not as Dominant away from Home
There’s not a lot of holes that you can poke in Pete Carroll’s tenure with Seattle since he took over as head coach in 2010. The Seahawks have been an extremely dominant home team under the guidance of Carroll, going a terrific 36-9 in the “Great Northwest”, and that includes 26-2 since the start of the 2012 campaign. However, they’ve been a very ordinary at best 20-23 on the road, and that includes last year’s Super Bowl win over Denver. It also must be noted, since the start of the 2010 season, Seattle has gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS away from Seattle, versus an opponent which scored 34-points or more in their previous game.
Super Bowl Parlay: Play on New England -1.0 and over 47.5 at BetOnline.