Right now the NFL Odds have the Broncos at +210 after listing them at +260 one week ago. The Broncos may be in serious danger of losing this game, and that’s why I cannot endorse them for this new price.
Much like the Hawks in the NFC, the Broncos seem slightly overvalued. Denver lost Chris Harris Jr, arguably their best corner against the Chargers. This could be one of the reasons the Broncos are not co-favorites in the NFL future odds, and probably why the spread in this weekend’s game shot down almost two points in twelve hours. Denver is looking very vulnerable this week. New England has a better running game than the Broncos, and definitely owns the defensive side of the ball in this battle as well. Much like the Hawks, I would fade the Broncos’ future odds price.
Peyton Manning is not very good in his career against Bill Belichick, and it get’s even worse in his career against Belichick with the Patriots. Manning is only 6-11 SU against the Patriots in his career going up against a Belichick-led defense, and this week might not be different. The Pats are going to run the ball on offense, keeping Manning on the sideline, and on defense they will likely be dropping six to eight guys into coverage all game. This will be difficult for the Broncos to overcome, and with a future odds price of +210, they too are overvalued. A better wager might be a moneyline bet on the Pats in this game.