Super Bowl Picks: Consider Betting The Traditional Player Props

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, February 3, 2016 7:38 PM GMT

The countless number of Super Bowl proposition bets can be a bit overwhelming and darn right silly. Best practice: keep it simple and stick to traditional player props. Here are a few to consider. 

Super Bowl proposition bets have flourished tremendously since the first official one listing whether Chicago Bears defensive lineman William “Refrigerator” Perry would rumble home for a touchdown 30 years ago. Now, with over 400 to choose from and countless more popping up in-game, many offerings are darn right silly and not worth the risk. Do you really want to gamble, or potentially waste your hard-earned money, on whether Phil Simms says “dab” five times or more during the broadcast?  My advice: keep it simple and stick to traditional player props offered on any given Sunday -- those focusing on yards, touches, touchdowns, and the like. Below are a few of my favorites for the big game that may provide value. Props and NFL odds used are posted by Bookmaker:

 

Total Completions By: Cam Newton (CAR)
OVER 19.5 -110
UNDER 19.5 -110

When kicking off the betting favorite in his career, Cam Newton has tossed 20 completions or more in only 15 games, while going under that amount in 27 others; he owns a 5:8 ratio this season. Although its passing attempts are up in 2015, the Panthers’ offense is a run-first team under Rivera’s reign. If Carolina grabs the lead, expect them to resort to the rush often in an attempt to wear down the vaunted Denver defense. Moreover, the Broncos unit allowed opposing quarterbacks to eclipse their season average in completions just six times all season, and only three times since Week 5. Newton enters the game converting 18.5 passes per game. UNDER 19.5 is an intriguing play.

 

Will Jonathan Stewart (CAR) score a touchdown? 
Yes +150
No -170

 

Will Cam Newton (CAR) score a touchdown?
Yes +140
No -160

Carolina enters the Super Bowl scoring 1.3 rushing TDs per game, best in the NFL. For as stout a unit the Broncos have at stuffing the run (3.3 yards per carry), it is not immune to giving up rushing touchdowns. Its 0.7 allowed per game ranks 16th in the NFL. In five games against teams averaging a TD or more on the ground, Denver yielded a rushing score in each.

Newton and Stewart dominate possession in the running game and account for 16 of the Panthers 24 rushing TDs this season. Mike Tolbert, rookie Cameron Artis-Payne and Fozzy Whittaker each picked up a rushing score on the year as well. 

For this prop, it is essential to look at the Panthers’ red-zone numbers. The duo has scored all 16 of their rushing scores from inside the opposing 20-yard line and account for slightly more than 69 percent of all run attempts inside the area (Stewart 47, Newton 27). The numbers increase from the 5-yard line and in. Stewart (10) and Newton (10) combined for 20 attempts at the end zone in 28 rushing plays in games the two suited up together. 

If a bettor wants to stick to one player, Cam may be the best option. You have to bet he will call his own number on the biggest stage of the year if less than a few yards from the end zone. Nevertheless, I am going to toss Stewart in their too at +150 odds. If either one rushes for a score, you still profit.

 

Total Receiving Yards By: Owen Daniels (DEN) 
OVER 33.5 -110
UNDER 33.5 -110

The Panthers' linebacker corps is one of the most athletic in the NFL and they are the best at limiting yards by tight ends. Their 9.63 yards allowed per reception is tops in the league. Owen Daniels, despite his two TD performance against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, still only covered 33 yards in the contest. In fact, with Manning under center, the 10-year pro has managed 34 receiving yards or more in only two games all year. Manning likes to look for his tight ends as quick outs under pressure, but the aging 33-year old Daniels may find it difficult to separate from defenders in the Carolina secondary. UNDER 33.5 is the NFL pick.