The Hawks haven’t been more than 4/1 to win the Super Bowl all season it seems, and now they are finally below 2/1 after their impressive win over the Saints. Now they face their toughest adversary yet, and even if they are successful this week against the 49ers, there still looms a long road trip to play in a stadium far away from the friendly confines of Century Link Field. Even though I really like their chances of going to the Super Bowl, their NFL Odds to win it are pretty over inflated. They are a solid favorite over the 49ers this week, but the Niners are playing some of their best football of the season, and from what I saw from Seattle this year, the team that’s playing right now is not at their peak. The Percy Harvin injury scares me, and I think without a viable passing attack, the Hawks can’t win the Super Bowl. Seattle is down from +250 last week.
The Broncos were +260 last week at Bovada and are now down to just over 2/1. Much like the Hawks in the NFC, the Broncos seem slightly overvalued. Denver lost Chris Harris Jr, arguably their best corner against the Chargers. This could be one of the reasons the Broncos are not co-favorites in the NFL future odds, and probably why the spread in this weekend’s game shot down almost two points in twelve hours. Denver is looking very vulnerable this week. New England has a better running game than the Broncos, and definitely owns the defensive side of the ball in this battle as well. Much like the Hawks, I would fade the Broncos’ future odds price.
While I wasn’t completely sold on the Niners at +500 to win the Super Bowl, it does look like the price was right, because now they sit at +300. Going into Century Link Field will be tough, but the Niners have won three of their last five games overall against the Seahawks SU, (only one win in Seattle) and are peaking at the right time. However the daunting task of beating a team that has only been beaten at home once in the last 17 tries makes the Niners’ Super Bowl price not as inviting. I would just recommend an underdog bet on them to win their game this week in Seattle rather than a +300 Super Bowl wager. You can get moneyline prices of +165 or better if the Niners win this weekend.
I mentioned last week how much I liked the Patriots price of +750 to win the Super Bowl, and now they are down to +425. New England has a pretty good shot at upsetting the Broncos in this game, and even now, they still seem to have value. Peyton Manning has struggled at times against a Bill Belichick defense, and as I mentioned above, the Broncos lust lost their best cornerback. Against either the Hawks or 49ers, the Patriots will probably be at the very least only slight underdogs, so even at +425, the value is there right now with their price.