Even though the Super Bowl is still three weeks away, and there are still conference championships to be won, I have come to give you a head start on all of your Super Bowl betting this season. Even though we are yet to know the participants, let’s take a look at a couple of historical trends that may give us an insight into the NFL Odds.
Favorites vs. Underdogs
Even though they lost last year, the favorites are 26-19-2 ATS in Super Bowl history, while the underdogs are 14-33 SU. In other words, if you go by strictly the trends, you should be all over the favorite in the moneyline and the spread this year. However, this is as broad as the spectrum gets, and if you narrow things down a little, you’ll see that the favorite might be the square play.
In the last six Super Bowls, the underdogs are 5-1 ATS and SU, including last year’s, and the last four in a row. Is the trend changing? It could be. The public loves betting favorites, and if it ends up the two #1 seeds this season, I can almost guarantee the Broncos are favorites over the Hawks in New York City. However that matchup might be so close neither side has much underdog value. Either way, favorites have been falling off ever since Peyton Manning won his Super Bowl, and then Manning also helped an underdog win in the last six years.
Make sure to check out our:
In the last ten years, the highest spread in a Super Bowl has been the nearly two-touchdown line the year the Patriots went undefeated and lost to the Giants. If you leave that out, -7 was the largest, and coincidently, the only time in the last six years where the favorite won the game SU, (but not ATS).
Assuming this season’s Super Bowl spread is in between 3-6 ½ points, the favorite has dominated those matchups as well, even though they did not last season. Favorites are 12-6 ATS and 11-7 SU when the spread falls between three and six points.
In a potential Patriots versus Seahawks matchup, I could easily see the spread falling between those guidelines. The Pats wouldn’t be much higher underdogs in that situation than they are this week against the Broncos.
O/U Trends and QB Super Bowl ATS records
The total has been split pretty evenly throughout the last ten years or so, however in last year’s Super Bowl the over cashed, which has made three of the last five Super Bowls go over the total on the NFL betting boards.
Between the four quarterbacks left in the playoffs, there are eight Super Bowls between them, but only three wins SU. It gets even worse when you take their ATS records. Below are the Super Bowl ATS records for all the quarterbacks left standing before the conference championships.
Tom Brady 1-4 ATS
Peyton Manning 1-1 ATS
Colin Kaepernick 0-1 ATS
Russell Wilson 0-0 ATS
These quarterbacks only covered two Super Bowls, Manning’s loan win, and Brady’s first when he was a huge underdog to the Rams and the Greatest Show on Turf. Brady has gone 2-2 SU since that seemingly big upset, however he has gone 0-4 ATS in his last four Super Bowls. The other three have the same SU and ATS Super Bowl records.
Make sure to stayed tune for our Super Bowl NFL Picks