Super Bowl XLIX is now almost two weeks away and with 10 different basic ways to make a Futures Bet heading into the AFC and NFC championships this weekend, now’s the time to try to squeeze a little more juice out of the lemon.
Trying to Find Value in a Super Bowl Bet Before This Weekend’s Games
Options are even more limited and value is almost a word which probably shouldn’t even be used now in talking about Super Bowl XLIX future bets, but there are actually positions out there now which will seem smart come February 1. The big problem is determining which ones and executing your bets before others beat you to the proverbial punch and move the NFL odds too much. And with just 10 different basic approaches still available, let’s examine each and come up with a play or two to put in before kickoff on Sunday. All odds are fresh (Tuesday, January 13) from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City.
Super Bowl XLIX Early Line: NFC -3 -110
So you get the defending champion Seahawks or the Packers with a possibly still injured Rodgers coming off a game against Seattle’s defense. With Seattle 27-2 L29 at home and almost covering 7 straight games (6-0-1 ATS), winning all 7 by double digits and allowing a total of just 53 points (3, 3, 14, 7, 6, 6, 14) along the way, it looks like this could be viewed as a bet for the Seahawks against either the Patriots or Colts. Which basically means if this wager was made, the gambler would be pulling for the Colts to upset the Patriots in Sunday’s second game. If the favored Seahawks and Patriots both win at home, the opening line for Super Bowl XLIX will probably be very close to this number anyway. Not sexy enough.
Super Bowl XLIX Early Line: AFC +3 -110
Here, you’ll have the Patriots or the Colts going to bat for you and if Indianapolis does somehow upset Tom Brady & Co. in Foxboro on Sunday, then you’ll have a bet with the Colts +3 points against the Seahawks or the Packers at a neutral site. It’s too soon for Indianapolis to defeat elite teams at this do-or-die point in the season and it’s always important to remember that the Colts cut their teeth in the paltry AFC South where they went 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS.
NFC Money Line -150
I like this one. Simple. Just asking the better conference to win. Either Seattle or Green Bay beating either the Patriots or the Colts—three of four matchups in which the NFC would likely be favorites. And with Seahawks genius head coach Pete Carroll (53-33-2 ATS) and that historic piranha-like defense, it looks like a second straight NFL championship could very well be in the works. The only matchup the gambler could have a problem with here would be a Patriots-Packers Super Bowl with a potentially gimpy Rodgers at the helm for Green Bay. But the Packers already beat New England, 26-21 in Week 16, barely covering as 2½-point favorites at Lambeau Field so the Cheeseheads certainly won’t be scared of the Fife and Drum Crew in a battle for all the gridiron marbles. Worth a conservative bet.
AFC Money Line +130
Again, making this NFL pick gives you two teams—the Patriots and the Colts—who will need to actually win the Super Bowl just to make you 1.3x your investment. And with half those potential games meaning someone has to beat the Seahawks—who have allowed only 53 points in winning their L7 games—and one of the other two possibly being that aforementioned Colts-Packers matchup, no thanks. Cod is on sale. A potential Patriots-Packers Super Bowl with New England needing to win just to bang a +130 ticket sounds like trying to knit a sweater out of dog hair or something, man...way too much work for wtf do I need a dog-hair sweater for anyway? If it’s Seahawks-Patriots, you may get similar or eventually even better Money Line odds on the Patriots once the money starts flowing in so this makes no sense. There is no value in getting +130 (if you win) right now when you will probably be able to do better by 10 to 30 and up cents come Super Bowl week.
Super Bowl Over 49 -110
There will be star QBs and throwing no doubt. Tom Brady or Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. All destined for the NFL Hall of Fame. And three of the four teams left (the Colts, Patriots and Packers) prefer the Pass over the Rush. The game (Super Bowl XLIX) will be played at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona which is an indoor venue with a wonderful natural grass playing surface—both good for skill position players, cuts and, potentially the Over and this particular bet.
Super Bowl XLIX Under 49 -110
Six of the last 10 Super Bowls have gone Under the posted Total but the last two, Super Bowls XLVII and XLVII, both went Over. With Luck and the pass-happy Colts possibly involved as well as Rodgers or Brady or Wilson, you have some of the best QBs in the game guaranteed to be participating and on a beautiful, fully-retractable natural grass playing surface where receivers wouldn’t be afraid to dive and where landing on the field hurts a little less than on many of the new modern blends of turf. The seemingly best matchup for an Under would be the Patriots coming out of the AFC and the Seahawks coming out of the NFC, so, odds are with that matchup but this number (49) is spot on and will be spot on anyway when the real Super Bowl are released on Sunday night—a mini-event in itself.
Seattle Seahawks to Win Super Bowl +120
The Seahawks (6-0 SU L6 Home, 5-0-1 ATS) will have to beat both the Packers and Aaron Rodgers on Sunday (NFC Championship; FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET/12:05 p.m. PT; Seahawks -7) and then either Andrew Luck and the Colts or Tom Brady and the Patriots in two weeks. And with Seattle’s defense ranked #1 in the NFL against the Pass (185.6 ypg) and in Total Opponent Points Allowed (15.9 ppg)—again—getting this red-hot team who will undoubtedly be favored no matter whom they might play in the Valley of the Sun in Super Bowl XLIX with the small plus seems the wisest of all ideas here as it opens up potential for a possible hedge or some other funny business. If Seattle tops the Packers at CenturyLink Field, then you’ll be sitting on a ticket with the Seahawks in the Super Bowl at +120 knowing they’ll likely be favored no matter who they play anyway. And with a potential Colts upset in Sunday’s late game (AFC Championship; CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET/3:40 p.m PT; Patriots -6½), all of a sudden you have a team that won it all last year in a situation where they just have to win the game on your ticket and a real life point spread for the Super Bowl that could very well see the Seahawks heavy favorites in the 7 to 10 point range. That would be a good feeling. Meow.
New England Patriots to Win Super Bowl +175
New England already beat Indianapolis this season but Green Bay beat the Patriots and the Seahawks would have the defensive edge over New England and we all know that defense wins championships. A Green Bay upset in Seattle would be the most desired result in this potential bet, but beating a team that’s 27-2 L29 in its Guinness Book of World Records-loud stadium will be hard, but doable. Should that happen, Green Bay may be energized enough to carry the torch for the NFC and, having repatriated New England once already, would have an idea how to do so again at a neutral site they’re a little more familiar with as the Cardinals are an NFC team. No perceived value here and way too much work and not close to enough return should it ultimately happen. Your doctor knows.
Green Bay Packers to Win Super Bowl +500
At first glance the +500 jumps out but there are a number of reasons not to like this bet. The Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers nasty calf injury. The Seahawks. The Patriots. And let’s face it, even the Final Four longshot Indianapolis Colts are pulling for the Packers to beat Seattle as they know they’re the one team they could probably beat in the Super Bowl. The injury to Rodgers is just too much and remember where he was at halftime of Green Bay’s last two games. The Packers are the best in the NFL in TO margin but any route to the Grand Canyon State that’s guaranteed to have Kam Chancellor and the Seahawks—whom they are 2-4 SU L6 against in Seattle—in its path is a route to truly be avoided.
Indianapolis Colts to Win Super Bowl +700
The longest shot of all the futures bets discussed here, Andrew Luck and TY Hilton and the Colts will have to beat the AFC’s #1 seed New England at home where they seldom lose and where the Patriots are an overwhelming 13-2 L15 SU against Indianapolis. And even if the Colts do find a way to outscore Bill Belichick’s boys, they’ll then have to face the defending champion Seahawks and the best RB left in the playoffs in Marshawn Lynch or the Packers and the deadly WR duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Should the Colts somehow win these last two games, back-to-back money line underdog parlays may be a more profitable end game, but the big value to be had in Indianapolis winning the Super Bowl (22/1 open, 20/1 just 2 weeks ago, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) this season has come and gone. Like bananas, most futures have a perfect time for ripeness that’s hard to tell when looking at bunch as a whole. It’s shorter period between the green and the brown than you think and there’s always that one magical banana that hits the mark in maturity and taste.
Super Bowl NFL Picks: Seahawks +120, NFC M/L -150 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)