Denver has seen a ton of money come in on them over the last three days, and it has moved their NFL moneyline Odds to as high as -140 in some cases. While this is an extreme example, it would not surprise me to see the line keep climbing. Let’s delve deeper into these numbers and see if there is still value in backing Denver with your NFL picks at these prices.
Immortality awaits (-135)
If the Broncos win this game, Manning will likely go down as the best ever. However getting through the Seahawks is no easy task. Their defense ranked number one in points allowed, red zone defense and 3rd down defense. Even if the Broncos don’t light up the scoreboard in this game, they can grind out a win. Knowshon Moreno looks like he will be ok after suffering a rib injury, and as long as he can tote the ball in this game, his presence alone gives Manning and the passing game an advantage. However this game will be won through the air.
Manning threw four touchdowns to only one interception this postseason, and even though his record may not be great over his career, if he wins this Super Bowl, there is no one alive who can question his legacy as a postseason QB. Among QBs with 20 or more postseason starts, Manning ranks fourth all time in completion percentage, first in yards per game and third in yards per attempt. Manning also has literally thrown off the “poor in cold weather.” label after his performances over the last two weeks, including 400 yards passing in the AFC Title game.
Compare the many Super Bowl Props that surround Peyton Manning's performance.
The Broncos defense has also been playing much better, and they proved it by limiting the Patriots to only 16 points. In their last four games (two playoff and two regular season) the Broncos have averaged giving up only 15 points per game. Denver has also been getting some great pressure on opposing QBs, which will be crucial in this game. The Seattle offensive line hasn’t been playing great this postseason, and in their last five overall games, the Hawks have allowed young Russell Wilson to get sacked 19 times. This, along with a devastating aerial assault by one of the game’s greats will be why the Broncos win this game.
Even at their current price, I think the Broncos have some value. Obviously if you did not get in on them when they were priced much lower, a wager on the spread might hold better value now. Some sportsbooks still have the NFL Odds at -2, including Pinnacle, The Greek and Matchbook. If you read my matchup breakdowns for this game, you’ll know I think the Broncos will have the advantage on both sides of the ball, and I doubt a wager at -2 holds much less value than a moneyline bet. In fact it could have more.