Super Bowl LIII Coin Toss Trends

Super Bowl LIII Coin Toss Trends

Out of the nearly 1,000 Super Bowl LIII proposition bets set to be offered across major online sportsbooks, one of the most popular is wagering a completely independent event offering zero betting value: the winner of the coin-toss. The entirely random occurrence presents zero edge to professional sports investors, but is easy to comprehend, settled early in the night, and highly entertaining, especially appealing for the novice bettor.

The Super Bowl coin toss takes place three minutes prior to kickoff and provides the winner the honor of receiving or deferring possession to start the game. Since 1978, a nominated celebrity flips a specially-minted coin with each team’s logo stamped on the Tails side, while the venue is represented on Heads. The referee confirms the side selection while the coin is in mid-toss. This affirms the correct team decision, avoiding the 1998 Thanksgiving Day blunder made by referee Phil Luckett. You can watch that infamous gaff below, where miscommunication occurred between Luckett and former Steelers’ RB Jerome Bettis deciding overtime possession:

Some decent-sized money is handled picking the Super Bowl coin-toss winner. In 2017, William Hill US wrote a $2,000 ticket wagering on Heads. The flip landed Tails, which has hit in five consecutive quests for the Lombardi Trophy. There are other Super Bowl coin-toss bets available. Let’s take a look at a few of these prop bets and trends:

Heads or Tail (-105, -105)

Don’t believe conspiracy theorists and crackpots when they claim specially-minted Super Bowls coins are weighted heavily on one side offering some sort of flip advantage. In the world of probability, this simply has no effect. The coin has no memory. In terms of physics, how a tosser flips the extra-heavy coin, it’s landing, etc., could have some effect on the outcome. But it is enough to overcome a fair 50-50 outcome? Nah. For what it’s worth, Tails has come up 28 times (53.8 percent) and Heads 24 times (46.2 percent) in Super Bowl coin flips.

Which Team Will Win the Toss (-105, -105)

From 1998-2011 the NFC won the Super Bowl coin toss 14 straight times. What are the odds of that happening? Roughly 16,000-to-1 or +1600000. The random streak has given the NFC a 67.3 percent win rate picking the flip. The AFC has won three of the last seven. There is nothing statistically significant in the trend. It’s randomness.

Deciding Team Picks Toss Correctly (-105, -105)

The conference champion designated the visiting team makes the call on the coin-toss, home teams select jersey colors. In even-numbered Super Bowls, the NFC is considered the away team, as opposed to the AFC in odd years. The AFC is 10-16 (38.4 percent) picking the toss, including whiffing in three of the last 10 contests.

Coin-Toss Winner Wins Super Bowl (-125, -105)

The conventional wisdom when winning the toss is to choose to receive possession first. The belief is scoring first will boost confidence. Only five coin-flip winners in the 52 Super Bowls have elected to kick off, including the Patriots last season. Teams winning the toss have gone on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy 51.9 percent of the time.

Super Bowl Coin Toss Results

Super Bowl Score Coin Result Toss Winner Division Game Favorite Line
I Packers 35-10 Chiefs Heads Packers NFC Packers -14
II Packers 33-14 Raiders Tails Raiders AFC Packers -13.5
III Jets 16-7 Colts Heads Jets AFC Colts -18
IV Chiefs 23-7 Vikings Tails Vikings NFC Vikings -12
V Colts 16-13 Cowboys Tails Cowboys NFC Colts -2.5
VI Cowboys 24-3 Dolphins Heads Dolphins AFC Cowboys -6
VII Dolphins 14-7 Redskins Heads Dolphins AFC Dolphins -1
VIII Dolphins 24-7 Vikings Heads Dolphins AFC Dolphins -6.5
IX Steelers 16-6 Vikings Tails Steelers AFC Steelers -3
X Steelers 21-17 Cowboys Heads Cowboys NFC Steelers -7
XI Raiders 32-14 Vikings Tails Raiders AFC Raiders -4
XII Cowboys 27-10 Broncos Heads Cowboys NFC Cowboys -6
XIII Steelers 35-31 Cowboys Heads Cowboys NFC Steelers -3.5
XIV Steelers 31-19 Rams Heads Rams NFC Steelers -10.5
XV Raiders 27-10 Eagles Tails Eagles NFC Eagles -3
XVI 49ers 26-21 Bengals Tails 49ers NFC 49ers -1
XVII Redskins 27-17 Dolphins Tails Dolphins AFC Dolphins -3
XVIII Raiders 38-9 Redskins Heads Raiders AFC Redskins -3
XIX 49ers 38-16 Dolphins Tails 49ers NFC 49ers -3.5
XX Bears 46-10 Patriots Tails Bears NFC Bears -10
XXI Giants 39-20 Broncos Tails Broncos AFC Giants -9.5
XXII Redskins 42-10 Broncos Heads Redskins NFC Broncos -3
XXIII 49ers 20-16 Bengals Tails 49ers NFC 49ers -7
XXIV 49ers 55-10 Broncos Heads Broncos AFC 49ers -12
XXV Giants 20-19 Bills Heads Bills AFC Bills -7
XXVI Redskins 37-24 Bills Heads Redskins NFC Redskins -7
XXVII Cowboys 52-17 Bills Heads Bills AFC Cowboys -6.5
XXVIII Cowboys 30-13 Bills Tails Cowboys NFC Cowboys -10.5
XXIX 49ers 49-26 Chargers Heads 49ers NFC 49ers -18.5
XXX Cowboys 27-17 Steelers Tails Cowboys NFC Cowboys -13.5
XXXI Packers 35-21 Patriots Heads Patriots AFC Packers -14
XXXII Broncos 31-24 Packers Tails Packers NFC Packers -11
XXXIII Broncos 34-19 Falcons Tails Falcons NFC Broncos -7.5
XXXIV Rams 23-16 Titans Tails Rams NFC Rams -7
XXXV Baltimore 34-17 Giants Tails Giants NFC Ravens -3
XXXVI Patriots 20-17 Rams Heads Rams NFC Rams -14
XXXVII Buccaneers 48-21 Raiders Tails Buccaneers NFC Raiders -4
XXXVIII Patriots 32-29 Panthers Tails Panthers NFC Patriots -7
XXXIX Patriots 24-21 Eagles Tails Eagles NFC Patriots -7
XL Steelers 21-10 Seahawks Tails Seahawks NFC Steelers -4
XLI Colts 29-17 Bears Heads Bears NFC Colts -7
XLII Giants 17-14 Patriots Tails Giants NFC Patriots -12
XLIII Steelers 27-23 Cardinals Heads Cardinals NFC Steelers -7
XLIV Saints 31-17 Colts Heads Saints NFC Colts -5
XLV Packers 31-25 Steelers Heads Packers NFC Packers -3
XLVI Giants 21-17 Patriots Heads Patriots AFC Patriots -2.5
XLVII Ravens 34-31 49ers Heads Ravens AFC 49ers -4.5
XLVIII Seahawks 43-8 Broncos Tails Seahawks NFC Broncos -2.5
XLIX Patriots 28-24 Seahawks Tails Seahawks NFC Pick ’em Pick ’em
L Broncos 24-10 Panthers Tails Panthers NFC Panthers -5
LI Patriots 34-28 Falcons Tails Falcons NFC Patriots -3
LII Eagles 41-33 Patriots Tails Patriots AFC Patriots -4

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