Super Bowl LI: Conference & Divisional Futures Book Odds Update

Kevin Stott

Sunday, June 5, 2016 5:49 PM GMT

Sunday, Jun. 5, 2016 5:49 PM GMT

With the vast bulk of opening money on select NFL Futures Book markets, let’s take an early-June look at the latest numbers for Super Bowl LI.

Heavy Pirate (Raiders) Money Due to Patch on the Logo’s Eye?
The biggest surprise when putting together this particular NFL Futures Book update from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook is how much the odds have changed on the Oakland Raiders, a team whose Super Bowl odds dropped from an opening of 50/1 to 25/1 and whose AFC odds dropped even sharper—from 25/1 to 10/1—due to an early influx of money on the Black and Silver at the world’s largest sportsbook. So why so much movement on a team which went 7-9 last season and finished third in the AFC West? Probably a combination of things, but perceived regression by the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos, rumors the Raiders franchise might one day actually call Las Vegas home and early betting fumes from those believing QB David Carr, WR Amari Cooper and the Raiders—who had a -40 Point Differential (359 PF-399 PA)—could maybe at least get to Super Bowl LI (51 in Roman Numerals) at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Feb. 5, 2017 (FOX) and possibly win it if everything goes right. That early money seems like Dumb Money or maybe Drunk Money while the early bettors who got down on the three P’s—the New England Patriots (6/1 to win Super Bowl LI, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), the Green Bay Packers (8/1 to win Super Bowl LI, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), and the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers (8/1 to win Super Bowl LI, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—seem to be holding tickets which may actually return to the window in January while even making the NFL Playoffs or finishing above .500 seems like progress for Oakland Head Coach Jack Del Rio and General Manager Reggie McKenzie. They’re definitely building something with this Raiders (+225 to win AFC West, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) team but without knowing where Home is for now and having to deal with the perennial division champion Broncos (+180 to win AFC West, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and the upstart Kansas City Chiefs +180 to win AFC West,Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) means that even getting in a position where Future Book bets on Oakland matter this season may end up being a difficult thing.

Some NFL teams who have seen their odds rise (due to lack of backing) in Spring betting have been the Pittsburgh Steelers—just slightly up from 8/1 to 9/1—and the three C’s, QB Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals, now 16/1 to win the Super Bowl after opening at 10/1; QB Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, now 30/1 after opening at 20/1; and, QB Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys, who are up slightly to 16/1 from 14/1, showing how astute NFL bettors have become through the decades. Up until recently, blind Cowboys Futures Book money would have already poured in on America’s Team but with zero trips to the Super Bowl returns window in the L20 years, perhaps Logic has somehow stuck under those cowboy hats. And a team many Sharps and some of the General Public strangely fell in love with late in the Future markets last season, the Philadelphia Eagles (50/1 to win Super Bowl LI, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), have seen their number drop from 40/1 as starting QB Sam Bradford whined about the team taking QB Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) with the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft and the team also saw RB Demarco Murray leave for the Tennessee Titans (100/1 to win Super Bowl LI, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). And either the SuperBook has received little or no action on the Titans or Reality has finally kicked in as the Titans opening odds of 50/1 have doubled for those wanting a bargain on a pair of pants with a big hole in the crotch. Another team whose NFL odds have drifted prominently is the New Orleans Saints, who are now a value-laden 100/1 after opening at 40/1, so Who Dat Nation as well as the Wiseguys and the General Public just aren’t betting on 37-year-old QB Drew Brees and the Saints Here are the fresh (Saturday, June 4) NFL Futures Book odds direct from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:

 

2016/17 Super Bowl LI Odds
New England Patriots 6/1 (8/1, Opening odds from Jan. 10)
Seattle Seahawks 8/1 (8/1)
Green Bay Packers 8/1 (10/1)
Carolina Panthers 8/1 (12/1)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9/1 (8/1)
Cincinnati Bengals 14/1 (12/1)
Arizona Cardinals 16/1 (10/1)
Dallas Cowboys 16/1 (14/1)
Denver Broncos 18/1 (20/1)
Minnesota Vikings 18/1 (20/1)
Kansas City Chiefs 18/1 (20/1)
Oakland Raiders 25/1 (50/1)
Houston Texans 25/1 (40/1)
New York Giants 25/1 (40/1)
Indianapolis Colts 30/1 (20/1)
Baltimore Ravens 30/1(40/1)
Buffalo Bills 40/1 (30/1)
New York Jets 40/1 (30/1)
Jacksonville Jaguars 50/1 (50/1)
Philadelphia Eagles 50/1 (40/1)
Atlanta Falcons 60/1 (40/1)
Chicago Bears 60/1 (40/1)
Detroit Lions 60/1 (40/1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60/1 (50/1)
Washington Redskins 60/1 (40/1)
Los Angeles Rams 60/1 (50/1)
Miami Dolphins 80/1 (50/1)
San Diego Chargers 80/1 (50/1)
San Francisco 49ers 80/1 (60/1)
New Orleans Saints 100/1 (40/1)
Tennessee Titans 100/1 (50/1)
Cleveland Browns 200/1 (200/1)
Odds Updated on June 4, 2016

 

2016/17 AFC Conference Futures Book Odds (Opened)
New England Patriots 3/1 (7/2)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9/2 (7/2)
Cincinnati Bengals 7/1 (5/1)
Denver Broncos 9/1 (9/1)
Kansas City Chiefs 9/1 (9/1)
Oakland Raiders 10/1 (25/1)
Houston Texans 12/1 (20/1)
Indianapolis Colts 15/1 (9/1)
Baltimore Ravens 15/1 (15/1)
Buffalo Bills 20/1 (15/1)
New York Jets 20/1 (15/1)
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1 (25/1)
Miami Dolphins 40/1 (25/1)
San Diego Chargers 40/1 (25/1)
Tennessee Titans 50/1 (25/1)
Cleveland Browns 100/1 (100/1)3

 

2016/17 NFC Conference Futures Book Odds (Opened)
Seattle Seahawks 4/1 (4/1)
Green Bay Packers 4/1 (5/1)
Carolina Panthers 4/1 (6/1)
Arizona Cardinals 8/1 (5/1)
Dallas Cowboys 8/1 (7/1)
Minnesota Vikings 9/1 (10/1)
New York Giants 12/1 (20/1)
Atlanta Falcons 30/1 (20/1)
Chicago Bears 30/1 (20/1)
Detroit Lions 30/1 (20/1)
Philadelphia Eagles 30/1 (20/1)
Washington Redskins 30/1 (20/1)
Los Angeles Rams 30/1 (25/1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1 (25/1)
New Orleans Saints 50/1 (20/1)
San Francisco 49ers 50/1 (30/1)

 

2016/17 Regular Season Odds to Win Division (Opening Odds, May 1)

AFC East Division
New England Patriots -275 (4/9)
New York Jets 5 /1 (5/1)
Buffalo Bills 7/1 (5/1)
Miami Dolphins 10/1 (10/1)

 

AFC South Division
Indianapolis Colts +140 (3/2)
Houston Texans +175 (3/2)
Jacksonville Jaguars 3/1 (7/2)
Tennessee Titans 10/1 (10/1)

 

AFC North Division
Pittsburgh Steelers Even (Even)
Cincinnati Bengals +175 (2/1)
Baltimore Ravens 7/2 (2/1)
Cleveland Browns 35/1 (35/1)

 

AFC West Division
Denver Broncos +180 (3/2)
Kansas City Chiefs +180 (8/5)
Oakland Raiders +225 (7/2)
San Diego Chargers 9/1 (8/1)

 

NFC East Division
Dallas Cowboys +130 (3/2)
New York Giants +225 (11/5)
Washington Redskins +425 (4/1)
Philadelphia Eagles +425 (4/1)

 

NFC South Division
Carolina Panthers -350 (2/7)
Atlanta Falcons 6/1 (7/1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8/1 (7/1)
New Orleans Saints 10/1 (10/1)

 

NFC North Division
Green Bay Packers -180 (5/8)
Minnesota Vikings 2/1 (5/2)
Chicago Bears 12/1 (8/1)
Detroit Lions 15/1 (8/1)

 

NFC West Division
Seattle Seahawks -150 (5/7)
Arizona Cardinals +160 (7/5)
Los Angeles Rams 9/1 (10/1)
San Francisco 49ers 25/1 (30/1)
Super Bowl LI Early Lines
Point Spread: NFC -2
Moneyline: NFC -135, AFC +115
Total (Points): 49½

 

Some Once Great NFL Teams Now Deemed Bottom-Feeders
The numbers are speaking, and this Spring they’re saying that there’s a perceived changing of the guard...about who the worst team in each Division is. Five seasons ago if we would have seen the Eagles (NFC East), Lions (NFC North), Saints (NFC South) and 49ers (NFC West) as the oddsmakers and bettors perceived bottom feeders in the NFC’s four divisions, we would think the league itself went through some major sea change, which maybe it has and currently is. And to see the Titans and Browns predicted last in their divisions is no surprise but for the San Diego Chargers (AFC West) and Drew Brees and the Miami Dolphins (AFC East) and Ryan Tannehill to both be near double-digit dogs (9/1, 10/1 respectively) to even win their own division is somewhat surprising, although obviously not to those who have been paying close attention to those teams and who wouldn’t bet on the Dolphins or the Chargers with your money. Anyway, NFL football will be here before we know it—CG Technology has odds for Weeks 1-16 already out and able to be bet—with the 2016 NFL Preseason kicking off in a little more than two months from now on Sunday, Aug. 7 with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and Andrew Luck and the Colts (NBC, 8 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. PDT), while the NFL Regular Season gets down and dirty around three months from now on Thursday, Sept. 8 with a Super Bowl 50 rematch at Altitude between Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers and Von Miller and the Broncos from Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver (NBC, 8:30 p.m. EDT/5:30 p.m. PDT).

SUPER BOWL LI FUTURES BOOK PICK: New England Patriots 6/1
SUPER BOWL LI FUTURES BOOK LONGSHOT PICK: Chicago Bears 60/1
SUPER BOWL LI EARLY LINE MONEYLINE PICK: AFC +115

AFC FUTURES BOOK PICK: New England Patriots 3/1
NFC FUTURES BOOK PICK: Chicago Bears 30/1
NFC DIVISIONAL FUTURES BOOK VALUE PICK: Chicago Bears 12/1

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