Super Bowl Betting Trends to Know for Chiefs vs. Eagles: Will Underdog Dominance Continue?

Underdogs have dominated the Super Bowl from an ATS perspective for over a decade. We dive into that and more in our list of Super Bowl trends to know as you make your Chiefs vs. Eagles picks based on the best Super Bowl odds.

ATS and O/U trends, what having a Super Bowl-experienced roster means, and player prop trends, are among the Super Bowl betting trends discussed in this article.

Here are our top NFL trends to know for Super Bowl 57 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Super Bowl betting trends to know

Super Bowl spread: Chiefs (+1.5) vs. the Eagles

If this line remains the same before kickoff, it would be Patrick Mahomes’ first time as an underdog in his 14th playoff game.

Mahomes became the youngest player to reach 10 career playoff wins (27 years, 134 days). His 10-3 career postseason record is a big reason his Chiefs have never been an underdog in a playoff game he has started. And if this line were to jump the fence, Mahomes would tie Peyton Manning’s record of 14 consecutive games being favored in the playoffs.

Mahomes has reveled in the underdog role in his career, going 6-3 straight up and 7-1-1 against the spread in nine games as an underdog.

From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City has won each of its last 10 games against NFC opponents, with the last loss coming in Super Bowl LIV to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And pay attention to the coin toss, as the team that has won the toss in the last eight Super Bowls has lost the game (25 teams have won the toss and the game in Super Bowl history).

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Underdogs are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 Super Bowls, and covered in eight of the previous 10

This is another trend supporting the Chiefs, as underdogs have had tremendous success in the Super Bowl of late. Favorites are 27-27-2 ATS overall and 36-20 SU in all Super Bowls.

Another interesting trend is that teams that win the Super Bowl are 47-7-2 ATS, covering at an 86% clip. One of the rare non-covers for a winning team happened in last year’s Super Bowl when the Rams won by three points but failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites over the Bengals.

Bettors may be able to cash in better odds on a “winning margin” bet, as six of the previous seven Super Bowls were decided by at least six points.

Super Bowl Over/Under: Chiefs-Eagles 49.5

Going back to 2002, Super Bowls with an Over/Under of 48-plus points have seen the Under cash nine of 11 times

The Super Bowl 57 O/U opened at 49.5, and bettors may want to keep an eye out if the line stays at that number, as underdogs are 5-1 SU in the previous six Super Bowls with an O/U less than 50 points. The only favorite to win in that span was the Rams last year, who beat the Bengals 23-20 in a game with an O/U of 49.5.

Does coaching experience matter?

Since 2000, 12 times a coach who had previously coached in a Super Bowl faced a coach who hasn’t. In those 12 instances, the coach with Super Bowl experience went 3-8-1 ATS and 7-5 straight up

This is a bit of a conflicting trend this year, as Andy Reid would cover the spread if he won straight up as an underdog in this year’s game. The last Eagles head coach to make their first Super Bowl appearance was Doug Pederson in 2017 when Philadelphia beat New England. And Reid is the fifth head coach to face his former team in the Super Bowl. The previous four head coaches are 2-2 SU, with wins by Weeb Ewbank over the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl III and Jon Gruden as the Tampa Bay Buccaneerss coach over the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. 

As little as coaching experience matters from an ATS perspective, players’ experience has mattered just as little. The team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has won 10 of the last 16 Super Bowls. Five Eagles (Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Jake Elliott, Fletcher Cox, and Brandon Graham) remain from the 2017 Eagles Super Bowl roster, while any Chiefs player who has been on the team for the previous three seasons has appeared in a Super Bowl.

Where is the value with player props?

Wide receivers have produced the first touchdown in a Super Bowl on 25 of 56 occasions

“First touchdown scorer” is becoming one of the most popular prop bets, and odds are it will come from a wide receiver in this game. Running backs have scored the first touchdown 16 times, defenses/special teams and tight ends have done so five times apiece, quarterbacks have scored the first touchdown four times, and fullbacks (a dying position in the NFL) have done so twice.

Super Bowl prop bets

Prop bet enthusiasts have a lot to choose from for Super Bowl 57; here's a look at some of the more popular Super Bowl prop bets across all of the best sportsbooks:

• Super Bowl 57 Roundup
• 57 Prop Bets for Super Bowl 57
• Super Bowl Exact Score Props
• Player Props
• Super Bowl MVP Props
• Touchdown Scorer Props
• Coin Toss Props
• National Anthem Props
• Super Bowl Sack Props
• Opening Kickoff Touchback Props
• Halftime Show Props
• Super Bowl 2024 Odds
• Novelty Props

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