The Super Bowl annually offers an expanded menu of betting markets from any regular-season or playoff game. As we prepare to crown an NFL Champion, we examine some Super Bowl betting strategies.
Possibly having just seen that sports betting is now legal in your state, you are interested in taking part. Opening the app for the first time may be confusing and overwhelming. We will explore a few betting strategies for the Super Bowl within this article.
What are futures bets and how can you hedge them during the Super Bowl? We discuss whether exotic props are a waste of time, and why player and game props should always correlate. It is critical to understand one thing when betting in a live market, and you should always seek out the most advantageous number before placing any bet.
Here are some key strategies to keep in mind when betting on Super Bowl LVI.
SEE ALSO: 2022 Super Bowl Betting Guide
2022 Super Bowl Futures Bets
In futures betting, wagers are placed over a long period of time. This type of bet is most commonly placed on markets that do not determine a winner until the end of that sporting season.
Are there any advantages to making a futures bet? In my opinion, the way to explain this to everyone is that you are using the element of time to your advantage by helping to increase market predictability. Long-term success is much easier to predict than success over a short period of time.
As an example, let’s say you are betting on a golf match between your friend and Tiger Woods. Suppose both competitors were to start on the green. If the match were decided by one putt, Tiger would likely win, but your friend would have a genuine shot. Suppose we back them up and they must hit a wedge and a putt to win the match. It is not impossible, but it is getting increasingly difficult for your friend to upset Woods. Now imagine the two are required to play 20 rounds of golf and compare their scores.
You would want to stake your entire mortgage on Woods, wouldn’t you? Betting on short-term success can prove to be very challenging when compared to betting on the long-term success of a player or team.
What to watch for
The futures market allows you to monitor movement in the odds and set yourself up for success. The principle is similar to that of spreads where you are looking for favorable numbers and creating value on the closing line. With futures, you are also trying to buy numbers when they are at their most profitable. With the right strategy, you don’t necessarily need to know who will win the Super Bowl since you can build a portfolio with multiple teams.
The Kansas City Chiefs were +1600 to win the Super Bowl in Week 8 of the NFL season, for example. During the preseason, they were +450. In the example above, you have grabbed the Chiefs at +1600, which is still a large enough number to bet on several other teams and make a profit. When is just as critical as who in futures markets.
Futures betting is also very different in 2022 than it was 20 years ago. There was a time when you had to go to Las Vegas and your bet was locked in until a winner was determined. Now, with so many legal sportsbooks and the convenience of mobile betting, your funds are not technically locked up for an extended period.
Several sportsbooks will include a cashout option and as long as the odds have not increased, you will be able to get all of your money back. If you have physical tickets, there are also exchange programs such as Prop Swap, where you can sell your futures tickets. It is possible to profit from futures bets even if they do not actually win.
Hedging a Futures Bet
As the Super Bowl nears, the futures market for outright winners has almost reached its conclusion. What should you do if you have a large ticket for one of the remaining teams?
In the case of Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams tickets, you have a much easier time hedging. This is because you are able to get plus money on the moneyline of their opponent in the AFC or NFC Championship. The Chiefs will be the easiest team to hedge out since they will be the favorites in both the AFC Championships and the Super Bowl.
Keep this in mind when placing your futures wagers. Long shots are always tempting, but they can be extremely difficult to hedge when the time comes. When you wager on a team or player that can work their way into being the betting favorite, it is much easier to lock in a profit.
How to bet on the 2022 Super Bowl
Most popular options
In Super Bowl 56, the most popular bets will be the spread, game total and moneyline. Last year, nearly $500 million was wagered at legalized sportsbooks and the number will increase this year with so many more states joining the industry.
Sometimes a bettor’s best bet isn’t to play the main markets when they’re confident that the game will go a certain way.
For instance, if you are betting the Chiefs on the moneyline because you don’t believe the Rams can contain Travis Kelce, a straight-up bet might not be the right move. As an alternative to betting on the whole game, consider a Kelce yardage prop for the Chiefs. The yardage prop would probably be -110, whereas the moneyline could be -150 or lower.
When placing any player or game prop, it is vital that they complement your other selections. The last thing you want is to play the Under on Mahomes’ passing yards while betting the Over on Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards. In the event that the game plays out the way you predicted it to, related props can lead to a monster day. Essentially betting against yourself can negate profits.
Develop a stance in the game and make wagers based on that stance that offer the best value. There are many ways to attack a certain aspect of the game, and the obvious is not always the most profitable. This is where price shopping and creativity prove to be extremely valuable. Connect your plays and take advantage of the wide array of props that this game provides.
SEE ALSO: How to Win Your Super Bowl Prop Pool
In comparison with a regular NFL Sunday, the Super Bowl features many more exotic props. It may seem like a waste of time at first, but sometimes it is easy to find an advantage in these markets.
Stay away from props that are truly 50/50, like the coin toss. Focus on props where an edge can be gained. Taking these markets seriously will allow you to identify value in some of these bets.
As an example, check previous setlists of the musicians playing at halftime to determine which song they may perform first. Consider digging up previous performances of the musician performing the national anthem at a sporting event or ceremony to determine how long they took. Search for videos of players who you believe deserve the MVP award and find out who they may thank first in interviews.
Pay attention to any lines that move in these props the night before the Super Bowl and on game day. Usually, a move on the odds of the Gatorade color is an indication that someone has leaked the colors on each sideline. Leaked information can be detected by watching for sudden shifts in the market. Value can be found at any book that’s slower than the rest of the market to make the change.
As a relatively recent development in sports betting, same-game parlays have taken over a large portion of the market. With these types of bets, you are able to combine several bets from the same game. For example, Over on Deebo Samuel rushing yards, Over on Samuel’s receiving yards, and Samuel to score at any time.
With so many props available for this game, it will be interesting to see which props will be available for the same-game parlay. In addition to your other Super Bowl wagers, ensure that your same-game parlay picks correlate.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Typically, player props include a specific number with a total, and the bettor must predict whether the prop will land Over or Under the given number. For example, Mahomes’ passing yards could be set at 282.5 with odds around -110 on either side.
Most game props are team-based and will give you a total where you can either bet the Under or Over. For instance, the Cincinnati Bengals have a team total of 24.5 points. It is then possible to place a wager on whether they will go Over or Under that line.
Immediately following the conclusion of the AFC and NFC Championship games on Sunday, bookmakers will lock markets and come up with the most elaborate menu of betting markets seen all season.
Last year, DraftKings Sportsbook released its Super Bowl props at 6 p.m. ET on the Monday following the Conference Championships. Bettors can reap the benefits of stalking the app the moment props are released. This is an effective way to get the highest numbers on some of these props prior to their move.
Early wagers, before the odds are adjusted, open the possibility of coming back later in the week and betting on the opposite side to create a middle opportunity.
Gaining an edge
It is not always easy to find an advantage when betting on a point spread, especially in games of such high profile as the Super Bowl. When it comes to the spread and the total, sportsbooks will not be sleeping on this one.
Player props and team props are where you can find an advantage. As there are so many props available, even the smallest news development could prove to be a big advantage to a bettor. It is much easier to find a flawed line on the usage of a third-string wide receiver than on the point spread.
Futures bets can also be hedged with player props. Playing the Over/Under markets on player props can be the most effective way to hedge your bet if you are betting on players to lead the playoffs in passing, rushing, or receiving yards.
Super Bowl Live Betting
Live betting is considered one of the most significant recent improvements in the world of sports betting. It is no longer necessary for you to have a conviction prior to betting on a game. You may now watch a game and place bets based on what you observe.
Sportsbooks have a section on the app where the odds are continually updated in relation to what is occurring during the game. An advantage of live betting is that most algorithms have a difficult time adjusting to the human element of what plays out. When the game strategy differs from what was predicted prior to the start of the game, bettors have the advantage.
During Wild Card Weekend, Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon drew a somewhat surprising start. McKinnon was priced as a backup in the live betting markets. In the period before he received the bulk of the work and the algorithm was triggered, you had an opportunity to purchase McKinnon at backup prices while he received a starter’s workload.
When it comes to live betting on the result of the game, the sportsbooks are always a couple of plays ahead. This gives them a significant advantage over the bettor.
Super Bowl Line Shopping
You should consider shopping at more than one book for the Super Bowl. Depending on the opening numbers posted at each book or the action they have received to date, the odds and lines offered may differ drastically.
As an example of price shopping during Wild Card Weekend, New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson was +330 at one sportsbook for an anytime touchdown, and +130 at another.
Given the large number of props available for the Super Bowl, you are likely to find significant differences in pricing. Be sure to shop around and obtain the best price possible. The real value comes when two or three books are in line on one number, and you’re able to find an outlier.
It is possible to place the same wager at two different sportsbooks, take both sides of the bet, and walk away with a profit just because the lines will differ.
Sportsbooks will be eager to receive your action for the Super Bowl and will offer some sort of free bet. You should take advantage of these and use them at every book possible.
Keep an eye out for sign-up bonuses ahead of the Super Bowl if you have only one account. Sportsbooks will likely offer some significant bonuses since the Super Bowl is no doubt used to increase customer acquisition.