Favorite: Broncos +650
After the Patriots’ problems at tight end, and the question marks surrounding the 49ers’ wide receivers, and the overall maturity of the Seahawks, the Broncos are the team with the least amount of questions and concerns. They did get word just today that Von Miller will likely be suspended for the first part of 2013 due to what is likely another (non PED) failed drug test. He and Elvis Dumervil accounted for most of the team’s sacks in 2012, and now Dumervil is gone and Miller might miss the first four games of the season.
However all things considered, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Denver Broncos dominate throughout the AFC, and make it to the Super Bowl easier than any other team. They have the easy strength of schedule in the entire NFL, and with the Pats hurting, there is not another team on the same level as them in the AFC. If it came down to beating the 49ers or someone in the NFC, I could see the Broncos taking it all this season, and at +650, the sports betting value won’t get better from here.
Dark Horse: Packers +1100
Even though they have dropped in value since the start of the summer, the Green Bay Packers are still north of 10/1 to win the Super Bowl, and outside of their running game, their health is the biggest reason they weren’t better last season. Heading into 2013, they have a couple of fresh faces in their running game in Eddie Lacy and Jonathon Franklin, and if those two can hold down the fort, this offense is looking more dynamic by the second.
They were the most injured team in the entire league last season, with a total of 83 games missed, and only eight players were 16 game starters last season. After a great draft where they were also able to get some help on the offensive line, this team looks dangerous. Even with their defense not very good, absolutely no running game, and all the injuries, they still won the division and won a playoff game. Imagine what they can do if all three of those things are fixed. Don’t underestimate the Packers in 2013.
Long Shot: Colts +3300
I had to flip a coin to pick between the Bengals and the Colts. Both were featured in my recent AFC Future Odds article, and while both are at +3300 to win the Super Bowl, the Indianapolis Colts have a much easier division to try and win, and they also have the better offense. They signed Ahmad Bradshaw this offseason who will add a ton to their running game, and they have spent the rest of their time and energy this offseason in signing guys to beef up their defense.As long as there is no sophomore slump for Luck, this pick is too good to pass up. It’s almost better than a lottery ticket at this point, but the Colts have all the upside in the world, and a small one-unit bet to payout at 33 units is worth it with Indianapolis.