Super Bowl 50 Line Movement Update: Have Panthers Peaked At 6 Pts?

Jay Pryce

Sunday, January 31, 2016 5:37 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 31, 2016 5:37 PM UTC

With a week to go until Super Bowl 50, NFL picks are pouring on the Carolina Panthers to win straight up and cover the spread against the Denver Broncos. Has the line peaked? Perhaps.

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Super Bowl 50
With a week to go until Super Bowl 50, money is pouring on the Carolina Panthers to win straight up and cover the spread against the Denver Broncos. On Thursday, William Hill US reported that a whopping 94 percent of money and 85 percent of NFL picks had been wagered on the Panthers against the spread (ATS) in just five days of trading. The book opened Carolina a 3.5-point favorite a week ago today, adjusting the line up on their Super Bowl odds board to -5.5 as of publication. Prior to the conference championship matchups, the Westgate SuperBook listed the Panthers a field-goal favorite over Denver. Almost any pushback from pros or sharps are engulfed by the amount of public money accepted. Offshore, roughly 79 percent of the money is backing the Panthers according to Sports Insights.


Spread Bets
Bettors have yet to see the spread approach a touchdown, a key number in NFL wagering. Will it climb that high? Maybe, but it certainly should not go over. The line has peaked at 6 points at many spots, but we are starting to see a little resistance. On the strip, The Wynn moved back to -5.5 on Saturday evening after dangling -6 for nearly 24 hours. Offshore, bettors have witnessed a similar adjustment at Pinnacle. In the NFL, betting favorites that close with a line in-between a field goal and a touchdown (-3.5 to -6.5), cover the spread roughly 74 percent of the time if victorious. When the line surpasses a touchdown, the cover rate dips to about 59 percent with a win. These rates hold steady in the playoffs as well.


Money Line Bets
Broncos backers are picking up the majority of money-line bets with 62 percent of tickets according to William Hill, but the amount of money wagered is 97 percent backing Carolina. Gary Kubiak’s crew are listed as +190 dogs at the majority of shops a week out, after opening +145 or +150. One can find +215 at 5Dimes.


Total Bets
The OVER is picking up steam as well at William Hill. After opening 44.5, a low offering compared to some other shop’s initial listing, 76 percent of tickets and 73  percent of the money backing a high-scoring affair has shoved the total up to 45.5. But there has been pushback preventing the number from surpassing 46 points both offshore and in Vegas. The over-under is dealing anywhere from 45 to 46 at every window.


Prop Bets
The Super Bowl is king for prop bets, and William Hill has shared data where their shop has seen the most action in a 24-hour window following the SuperBook’s release of its nearly 400 props offerings—the industry standard. Alternate point spreads dominated much of the early dealings, with the Panthers -14.5, -17.5 taking the top spots for the most tickets sold and Carolina +7.5, +10.5 for most money wagered. Bettors are also keen on the game seeing a missed extra point and a successful 2-point conversion chance. 


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