Sunday Week 11 NFL Value Betting

Steven Suarez

Sunday, November 17, 2013 3:01 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013 3:01 PM GMT

Looking for some late-minute value players to add to your NFL picks? Here are two plays worth considering for our NFL betting.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

An opening line of a PK as moved ever so slightly to New York's side, with the Jets now favored by 1.5 to 2 points on the road.

New York has alternated wins and losses in all nine of their games (5-4 SU) so far this season, while posting a rock-solid 6-3 ATS mark overall. The Bills come in with a three-game losing streak to go along with a 3-7 SU record and 5-5 ATS mark.

Why do we think Buffalo's the play?

For one, the Bills have been extremely competitive at home. They've beaten Carolina (24-23) and Baltimore (23-20) while losing by only two to New England and by three to Cincinnati. We shouldn't read too much into a 23-13 loss to Kansas City, considering third-string QB Jeff Tuel was the starter.

Meanwhile, the Jets haven't been nearly as scary out on the road. They're 1-3 outside of New York with a 38-13 loss to Tennessee and a 49-9 massacre at the hands of Cincinnati. Compare that to a 4-1 mark at home with wins over New England and New Orleans and you can see the discrepancies.

In the first meeting of the season, the Bills lost by a touchdown, with EJ Manuel throwing for 243 yards and a score and running for an extra 40 yards. Geno Smith had a mixed day, throwing for 331 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Today we see defense taking over more than anything else. We initially liked the UNDER in this division battle, but we've opted to go with a play on the home underdog instead as they try to even up the score with Rex Ryan's crew. Take Buffalo.

Pick: Buffalo Bills +2

[gameodds]16/227016/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Find more live updated NFL betting lines and more trends and statistics at SBRodds.com!

San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

Our second pick comes on a small road favorite in the Chargers. Both San Diego and Miami are 4-5 SU on the season, with the Dolphins at 4-5 ATS and the Chargers at 5-3-1 ATS.

San Diego has lost two straight games, a tough road loss (30-24) to Washington and a 28-20 home defeat to Denver. Before those, the Chargers had won three of four, including two home wins over Indianapolis and Dallas.

The Dolphins are not in a good place right now at all. They just gave Tampa Bay their first win of the season and have lost five of their last six heading into this afternoon's affair. Miami has gone 1-5 ATS during this terrible run.

Add in the bullying fiasco and now is not the time you want to put to much faith in the Dolphins to get you a positive result.

Both teams have struggled defensively, but at least San Diego has been able to move the ball up and down the field consistently. Whereas the Dolphins rank #29 in total offense, the Chargers are #7, thanks to a passing attack that's averaging 288.7 yards per game.

In all honesty, San Diego should have won that game against the Redskins in Week 9, and they were able to put up a good fight against the Broncos. We think the Chargers are going to come out and control this game, despite being the road team.

Does that make them the right selection with our NFL picks? We believe so.

Pick: San Diego Chargers -1


[gameodds]16/227020/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

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