Sunday Night Week 7 Picks - Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

David Schwab

Saturday, October 21, 2017 2:38 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 21, 2017 2:38 PM UTC

The 3-2 Atlanta Falcons and the 4-2 New England Patriots clash this Sunday night at Gillette Stadium in a scheduled 8:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff on NBC. This game will be a highly anticipated rematch of last season’s miracle come-from-behind Super Bowl victory by the Patriots.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

Pointspread: New England -3
Total Line: 56.5

Last year’s crushing loss to New England in Super Bowl LI did not appear to have a negative impact on the Falcons in three-straight wins this season against Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit, but that was not the case in back-to-back losses to Buffalo and Miami at home in their last two games. They are now 3-2 straight-up with a 2-3 record against the spread. The total stayed UNDER in both of those losses.

Atlanta’s potent offense has always been known for putting a high number of points on the board. After tallying a combined 87 points in its first three games, this unit has been held to a combined 34 points against the Bills and the Dolphins. The Falcons actually blew another big lead against an AFC East foe after taking a 17-0 lead into halftime last Sunday against Miami. While the overall offensive stats look good with an average of 24.2 points and 378.4 yards per game, there has to be a high level of concern with the effort against the AFC East so far this year.

The expectation level for New England was even higher this season with a projected win total of 12.5 games. Six weeks in and the Patriots have already lost twice at home both SU and ATS while having to squeak out three of their four wins with late-game heroics. The net result is an SU 4-2 start with a 2-4 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in their last two games after going OVER in their first four.

This is another team that has put up some impressive numbers on offense as the fifth-highest scoring team in the NFL paced by the most yards gained by any other team. Tom Brady has already thrown for 1,959 yards and 13 touchdowns and a healthy Rob Gronkowski at tight end has been on the receiving end of four of those scores. The issue has been a defense that is actually ranked dead last in the NFL against the pass and in total yards allowed. This unit is allowing an average of 26.5 points per game, which is also well down the list.

Game Betting Trends

--The Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played on the road, but they are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an SU loss. The total has gone OVER the closing line in eight of their last nine outings against a team with an SU winning record.

-The Patriots have covered ATS in seven of their last games against a team with an SU winning record and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an SU win. Going back to their last seven games following an SU victory, the total has gone OVER in six of those contests.

--The road team has a 5-1 edge ATS in the last six meetings between these two inter-conference foes and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings.

Final Analysis

Both teams have had their issues this season coming off that epic showdown in Super Bowl LI and where each one goes from here is anyone’s guess. As far as Sunday night’s contest, I would probably lean towards New England to win SU. When it comes to betting this game my top NFL pick would be the UNDER on an inflated 56.5-point total line given each team’s current form.

Free NFL Pick: Under 56.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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