Week 4 Predictions - Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears 10/2/16

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 30, 2016 10:11 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 30, 2016 10:11 PM UTC

Each week in this space I isolate the contrary play of the week from which only you, I, and the LONE RANGER will profit. This week, it looks even tougher as we are backing the only 0-3 SU ATS team in the league. That’s why it’s called the Lone Ranger Contrary Play Of The Week.

 Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

The Detroit Lions enter Chicago hungry for the victory against the team they defeated by scores of 24-20 and 37-34 last year. That win in Chicago was the third consecutive at this site for Detroit. Though the Lions themselves are hungry at 1-2 SU, they are 2-1 ATS, bringing them in on an 8-3 ATS run since their mid-season turnaround last year when they were 1-7 SU ATS. Has it been the magic that became immediately apparent when last year’s new OC Jim Bob Cooter began to influence QB Stafford? The final score of last week’s loss at Green Bay 34-7 was a bit misleading, for the Lions trailed 31-3 before a late game rally got the backdoor cover. Some may point to the 418-324 yardage edge favoring the Lions in the game.  A more relevant statistic is that the Lions lost the battle at the point of attack being outrushed 123-50. After 3 games, Detroit is allowing 5.1 YPR, tied with Oakland for the worst defensive front in the league, and hardly a point to reinforce their performance this week. If you’re looking for negatives, consider that Detroit is a longtime 1-24 SU on the road following games with Green Bay. 



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You will be brave enough to back Chicago despite the negative numbers of the Lions.  For the Bears are 0-3 SU ATS, failing to cover by a sum of 29 points, while being outscored 28-15, outrushed 143-70, and out-yarded 357-311. Soldier Field faithful are looking for a turnaround despite the following negative numbers. The Bears are 6-20 ATS on this field, including 2-7 ATS under current second year HC Fox. After finishing the year 1-4 SU ATS in 2015, the Bears are on a 1-7 SA slide. In addition, they have now lost 6 consecutive games to the Lions in the last 3 years. Only bright light may be that QB Hoyer, in replacing injured starter QB Cutler (thumb), was quite effective last week, leading the Bears to 317 PY with a 2/0 ratio. 

This one is only for the very brave as I invite you to put the NFL Odds in your favor and join the Lone Ranger and me in my contrary NFL Pick on the Chicago Bears in Sunday action.

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