Sunday Night Football Week 4 Picks - Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers  player in action

Jason Lake

Thursday, September 29, 2016 9:48 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 9:48 PM UTC

The Pittsburgh Steelers play the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Will the Under be the right NFL pick for an October evening in the Great Outdoors?

The plot thickens. Sunday night's game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers got a bit more interesting when the injury reports came out – well, some of the injury reports. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin says LB Mike Shazier, RG Ramon Foster and WR Eli Rogers are “very questionable” to play Sunday, but at press time, only Rogers (turf toe) has popped up at Rotoworld.

The official injured list has yet to be released, but people have started to fade the Steelers, which, conveniently enough, we've already recommended for your NFL week 4 picks. But what about the total? In theory, the UNDER is the right parlay with the underdog, and the game is being played outdoors in Pittsburgh, in the evening, in October. Maybe that'll be enough to get us to the pay window.

Prayers for Rain
Maybe. There's a total of 47 points on the NFL odds board, so we're already skeptical; we're looking for opportunities to take the UNDER on totals higher than 51, and the OVER on totals lower than 37. That's where the gold is at. And the weather forecast for game time calls for temperatures in the low 60s, with just a 20-percent chance of rain. Lovely for football, but not much help to us.

Then again, it is Pittsburgh, and it is October. The Steelers have the UNDER at 16-5 in their last 21 October games overall, and 11-6 at Heinz Field since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, including 7-2 in their last nine home games. Some of that has to do with Tomlin, who started specializing in defense in 1998 after playing wide receiver and tight end in college. And some of it has to do with the swirling winds at Heinz Field, which are murder on place-kickers.

The Chiefs should do their part, too. They've got that whole defense-and-running thing down pat in the Andy Reid-Alex Smith Era, and the UNDER is already 2-1 for them this year, just like it is for the Steelers. The last four games between these two teams all went UNDER the posted total. It's the right play, but it's a marginal play, so keep that bet size modest, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Under 47.5
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Record: 5-3 ATS, 4-3 Totals

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