Sunday Night Football Picks - Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings ​

Minnesota Vikings  wide receiver in field

Jason Lake

Sunday, September 18, 2016 7:02 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 18, 2016 7:02 PM UTC

Judging by the way Mike Zimmer has dealt with Aaron Rodgers, the UNDER should be a decent NFL pick for Sunday's game between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.

And everything was going so lovely. We had the UNDER last week in the two games with the highest totals on the NFL odds board: Raiders-Saints (50 at the close, 52 when we made our pick) and Lions-Colts (51 and 51). The first game saw 32 points scored in the fourth quarter. The second, 28 points. Great googly-moogly.

We're not betting the OVER this time, either. Sunday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings has a total of 44 as we go to press, down from 44.5 at the open thanks to some early pressure from the sharps. We've already recommended the Vikings as 3-point home dogs for your Sunday night football picks, and this looks like a good spot for the classic underdog-UNDER parlay.

What in the Sam Hill
First up, some news about this game: Nobody is saying who will start at quarterback for the Vikings. Head coach Mike Zimmer won't reveal whether Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford will be the man – he might not even tell his own players after someone leaked that Hill would get the start in Week 1. Loose lips sink ships.

We're fine with either man for our ATS pick. We'd prefer Hill for the UNDER, but not by much; Bradford has a higher ceiling offensively, but he's also got a lower floor after going through training camp with the Philadelphia Eagles, thinking he was going to be their starter. Whatever the case, Minnesota's offense should involve large doses of RB Adrian Peterson, who got 19 touches in the opener against the Tennessee Titans, and rushed for 31 yards. Ai ya.

Eat Your Greens
Then you have the problems Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has had dealing with Zimmer. As ESPN's Rob Demosky pointed out Tuesday, Rodgers has seen his numbers drop across the board when facing a Zimmer defense; that would include the last four games against the Vikings, plus two more (in 2009 and 2013) when Zimmer was the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals.

As it turned out, both the games against Cincinnati went OVER. But the UNDER is 3-1 with Zimmer in full control of the Vikings. And as we mentioned in our look at the spread, the Packers offensive line has been comprised by the multiple torn hamstrings suffered by center Corey Linsley. Rodgers is about to get very familiar with the new stadium in Minneapolis, starting with the turf.

Of course, there's always the concern that the Vikings defense will score a touchdown and ruin things – like it did in the opener against the Titans. Twice. Final score: Minnesota 25, Tennessee 16 (OVER 40). But you can't let a bad beat like that alter your thinking. Trust the process, and may the prolate spheroid is with you.

Free NFL Pick: Under 44
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Record: 2-0 ATS, 0-2 Totals

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